The doomsayers were wrong about Hong Kong. Six months after the end of British colonial rule, they have to admit that China has kept its word. The lights did not go out on July 1st. The territory of 6.3 million people was allowed to get on with its capitalist life without interference from Beijing.
But no one could have foreseen the run of bad luck which has almost brought Hong Kong to its knees since the Peoples Liberation Army rode into town, drenched by a freak rainfall which was taken as a bad sign for the future.
For a people who regularly divine portents of the future, the failure of Hong Kong's new-year cannon to fire at midnight on December 31st was another bad omen. The shot stuck in the barrel of the old colonial cannon and was fired four minutes late. Things are bad enough as it is. The territory's vibrant economy was dragged down by the Asian slump. Its stock market index fell 35 per cent. Interest rates soared. Property values slumped. Tourism fell off.
Now a deadly "chicken flu" threatens to quarantine the area more effectively than any political clamp-down by Beijing. On New Year's Eve Thailand became the first country to advise its nationals not to travel to Hong Kong because of the deadly virus that has killed four people and is still active.
Health authorities yesterday diagnosed another case in a 14-yearold girl, bringing the total number of confirmed infections to 14. She is "satisfactory" in hospital.
"People should refrain from travelling to Hong Kong," said Dr Yudh Photaramij of the Thailand Public Health Ministry. "If they must go we urge them not to get close to the birds or touch them."
Planes are already flying into Hong Kong half empty as potential visitors put off travel while the scare continues. Cathay Pacific Airways, the Hong Kong flag-carrier, has been forced to reverse its policy of not giving refunds to travellers who cancel bookings on its recently-introduced "super offer" low-priced package because of concerns over the "bird flu".
European Union health officials will meet early in the New Year to assess the risks from the "bird flu". However, European Commission spokeswoman Eila Nevalainen announced on Wednesday that no chicken had been imported from Hong Kong for some years by EU memberstates. The EU has banned imports of chicken products from China since 1996 because of the conditions in slaughterhouses there. The United Arab Emirates banned the import of live and frozen poultry from Hong Kong, China and Australia.
The slaughter since Monday of virtually every chicken, goose, duck and pigeon in the territory, a total of up to 1.4 million birds, has brought unwelcome attention to Hong Kong all over the world. It was ordered to try to remove the source of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, previously unknown in humans, but officials hope the cull will restore confidence at home and abroad. With all this going on, debate on internal politics, which dominated the months before the Union Jack was hauled down, has been relegated to the background. But it has not gone away. Small pro-democracy demonstrations, many illegal under new public order rules, are held regularly. Yesterday more than 100 activists marched to the offices of Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa to call for an end to Communist one-party rule in China.
The police have not stopped such demonstrations and the estimated 4,700 PLA troops in Hong Kong have stayed in barracks as Beijing promised. A big test for street activity is looming, however. Mr Szeto Wah, leader of yesterday's protest, said they would hold marches and candle-light vigils on June 4th, as on previous years, to commemorate the crushing of the pro-democracy movement in China in 1989 - a sensitive time for Beijing which bans such protests on mainland China.
Political activity will heat up in spring prior to the establishment in May of a new 60-seat legislature. The electoral rules are similar to those imposed by Britain in the 1980s, but less democratic than the new franchise introduced by the last governor, Mr Chris Patten, which was discarded by Beijing on July 1st.
Twenty members will be directly elected, 10 will be appointed by a pro-Beijing panel, and 30 others will come from professional, social, trade, union and religious groups. Meanwhile, the disruption to the natural cycle caused by the mass slaughter of Hong Kong poultry is seen as another bad omen, especially by local Buddhists.
About 70 Buddhist monks in black and brown robes are staging a seven-day chanting session in a Hong Kong monastery to pacify the souls of the dead birds.