China watches for future leaders at National People's Congress

The annual gathering in Beijing this week of China's most powerful politicians is attracting more attention than usual

The annual gathering in Beijing this week of China's most powerful politicians is attracting more attention than usual. With five of the seven men at the top of the Communist Party due to retire in 2003, the eyes of the nation are already on the country's potential future leaders.

Almost 3,000 delegates are in the Chinese capital for the National People's Congress (NPC), the country's parliament, which opens today with an address from the Chinese Premier, Mr Zhu Rongji.

Top of the agenda at this year's session will be corruption, a new five-year economic plan, and government proposals to reform China's flagging agricultural sector and troubled state industries.

The 2,978 NPC members, hand-picked by local-level Communist Party officials across China, will also review plans to develop a social security system in order to cushion the blow of radical reform necessitated by China's imminent entry to the World Trade Organisation. It is estimated WTO accession could lead to upwards of 45 million workers being laid off by state firms and millions of farm workers losing their livelihoods because of tough new foreign competition.

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But much of the speculation over the next 10 days will centre around who is in line for election to the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee when the 16th Communist Party Congress takes place late next year. Among those due to step down are the President, Mr Jiang Zemin, the NPC Chairman, Mr Li Peng, and the Prime Minister, Mr Zhu.

One of the favourites to succeed President Jiang is the State Vice-President and current number five in the party hierarchy, Mr Hu Jintao (58). He has been on the political fast track since at least 1992, when he joined the Politburo Standing Committee after heading the party in Guizhou and Tibet. He is credited with quelling the biggest of the Tibet's many pro-independence protests in 19881989.

Mr Hu is best known for spearheading protests to US diplomatic missions in May 1999 after the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. His main rival is Mr Zeng Qinghong (61), a Jiang aide who controls party personnel matters.

Most predict that those with ambitions to be China's next leader will have to display considerable political toughness in the next 18 months to convince potential supporters of their ability to handle the issues which could potentially undermine the stability of the world's most populous nation.

Against that backdrop, some tough talking on the subject of the Falun Gong spiritual movement can be expected from the rostrum over the next 10 days. There is unlikely to be any letup in the authority's propaganda campaign against the outlawed organisation.

And the party hierarchy is likely to renew its determination to tackle corruption. At last year's NPC, 29 per cent of delegates abstained from voting or voted against a work report on the government's anti-graft campaign, sending a clear signal that they were unimpressed with Beijing's efforts to crack down on corruption. This issue is likely to dominate again this year but the government can boast more success with investigations into two of the biggest corruption scandals in the history of the communist era resulting in 200 convictions to date.

The NPC closes on March 15th, when Mr Zhu holds a press conference that gives reporters their only chance of the year to put questions to China's Premier.