No one should be surprised at the timing of yesterday's bomb in Markethill. The Continuity IRA (CIRA) is strongly opposed to the peace process and has threatened to escalate its campaign in the North. In an interview just a fortnight ago, a representative of the group's "Army Council" told me it planned to target RUC officers, British soldiers and military bases in the near future.
No group has yet admitted responsibility for the bombing but all evidence points to the Continuity IRA which has a history of not immediately claiming attacks. If CIRA is responsible, the Markethill bomb will be its most high-profile attack ever.
It places substantial pressure on Mr Gerry Adams and Provisional IRA leaders who are seen to be not fully in control of events. It will also aid CIRA's recruitment drive among dissident Provisionals.
CIRA has its roots in the Sinn Fein split on abstentionism in 1986. It was formed by disillusioned IRA members who supported the breakaway Republican Sinn Fein group of Mr Ruairi O Bradaigh. They argued that Mr Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness had abandoned traditional republican principles.
CIRA believes that the only way forward for republicans is "armed struggle" and has pledged not to end its campaign until the "British make a declaration of intent to withdraw and all political prisoners are released". It is staunchly opposed to all-party talks which, it says, will only result in a new Stormont with cross-Border boards.
The group is weak in Belfast, Derry and other urban areas. However, it has a substantial presence in rural areas, particularly along the Border, and is larger than the Provisionals in Co Fermanagh. Its members include both former Provisionals and "clean" recruits, many of whom are in their early 20s and have never been involved with any other paramilitary group.
Its recruitment appears to have risen in recent months during growing disillusionment with the peace process in some hardline republican areas. CIRA has carried out about 12 attacks in the North, including the bombing of the Killyhevlin Hotel, in Enniskillen, last year.
It has so far been unable to mount a sustained campaign and several failed bombings have suggested technical deficiencies. However, in the interview a fortnight ago, the CIRA leader said these had been overcome and the Markethill bombing could be evidence of this.
CIRA claims to have commercial explosives but refuses to say if it has Semtex. It has said that it has no interest in launching an offensive against loyalists and that its main targets are "crown force personnel". It has also threatened to bomb Britain.
Unionists claim that there is collusion between CIRA and the Provisionals. However, while many CIRA members have a good relationship with grassroots Provisionals, there is no co-operation between the two organisations at leadership level. Indeed, Provisional leaders are known to loathe CIRA.
Although the peace process will undoubtedly survive yesterday's bomb, both governments and the Provisionals will continue to worry about CIRA's potential. The group's very existence and repetition of traditional republican demands puts huge pressure on Provisional leaders and makes them vulnerable to charges from their grassroots that they have "sold out".
"While Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness were sipping tea at Stormont, other republicans were out at the cutting edge," said a dissident west Belfast Provisional last night.
Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness will be hoping that most other Provisionals believe that there is more to be gained from negotiations at Stormont Castle than bombs in Co Armagh.