UN: A quiet battle is under way over plans to expand the UN Security Council, writes Deaglán de Bréadún, Foreign Affairs Correspondent.
The mother of all discreet political contests is taking place at the United Nations and in capital cities throughout the world. The prize for one side is to attain permanent membership of the Security Council, the prize for the other side is to prevent that from happening.
Four major players in the game of power politics - Brazil, Germany, India and Japan - have joined together in the Group of Four (G4). Their aim is to create six new permanent seats on the Security Council, four of which would be occupied by the G4 countries. All believe they have strong claims: Brazil plays a dynamic role in South America, Germany is a key player in the European Union, India has been emerging as a major regional power and Japan contributes massively to the UN budget.
But if you were Pakistan, would you want your Indian neighbour and nuclear rival holding a permanent place on the body which has the right to decide on matters of peace and war in the world? If you were China, you might well feel uncomfortable about your former wartime adversary, Japan, having permanent membership of the body informally known as "Secco". Argentina and other South American countries look askance at the prospect of Brazil bestriding the world stage in this context. Likewise, Italy is distinctly unenthusiastic about Germany as a permanent member.
Countries opposed to the G4 project have combined in the Uniting for Consensus (UFC) group, informally known as "The Coffee Club". The name dates back to the time when these like-minded states started conferring over coffee at UN headquarters.
Italy is to the fore and it is said that, when he was told Germany and Japan had joined forces in the race for the Security Council, an Italian diplomat in the group quipped: "What's wrong with us, didn't we lose the war too?"
The playing-field for this power-play is worldwide - in Dublin, G4 representatives have held meetings with Department of Foreign Affairs secretary general Dermot Gallagher and, later, Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern. The UFC group has also been quietly lobbying and hopes to meet the Taoiseach as well as Mr Ahern. They want to delay, if they cannot at this stage defeat, the G4 move to create new permanent seats, which they claim is "unaccountable" and "undemocratic".
There is a further interesting by-play in the game, involving the continent of Africa. The G4 group is proposing four new permanent seats for itself and two for African member-states. South Africa has an obvious claim but should it have precedence over Nigeria? And if you give a seat to each of them, then what about Egypt? There are others who would consider themselves eminently suitable. There is a total of 53 African member-states at the UN, none with a permanent "Secco" place.
Ireland is a long-time supporter of the principle that the Security Council should be more representative and perform with greater efficiency. These two objectives are not necessarily always compatible.
The Government is also keenly conscious that two important EU partners are involved on opposite sides, namely, Germany and Italy. If it comes down to a vote at the General Assembly, Ireland will be forced to make a choice, based not only on the best interests of the UN in general, but also in Ireland's national interest, e.g., the UFC points out that we would have a strong chance of gaining one of the 10 new temporary seats it has proposed, but do we really want to annoy Germany and Japan, not to mention India and Brazil?
Brian Cowen, in his last major address before exchanging Foreign Affairs for the Finance portfolio, told the UN General Assembly there should be "a modest and regionally balanced increase, both permanent and non-permanent" in the council membership. But he didn't say who should be the chosen ones.
His successor at Iveagh House, Dermot Ahern, is required to be even more discreet, given his new role as a "temporary extension of the Secretary General". The Louth man is one of five special envoys appointed by Kofi Annan to promote the process of UN reform. Continental Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals is Ahern's beat, as well as Israel, and he has already clocked up some 48,000 miles of air travel in the line of UN duty.
The Minister left for New York on Tuesday afternoon for meetings yesterday with the other four envoys as well as Kofi Annan and others in the reform process. Like the Taoiseach, his namesake, Mr Ahern is a consensus politician who will be hoping a compromise can be found so that confrontation across the floor of the General Assembly can be avoided.
At present, the Security Council consists of 15 members, five of whom have permanent seats and veto powers. The "P5", as they are called, comprise the victorious powers in the second World War: China, France, Russia, the UK and USA.
Naturally, the aspirants for permanent membership would also like to have veto powers but this looks more than a little problematic.
The other 10 are elected on a two-year basis and Ireland served in this capacity in 2001/02. At present, the non-permanent members have to step down at the conclusion of their term. The UFC group proposes that the number of permanent members remain at five but it wants an increase in the number of temporary members from 10 to 20. These temporary positions would be renewable, so that a popular UN member-state could be re-elected by the General Assembly for successive terms, potentially becoming a permanent member in all but name.
In parallel with the Security Council drama, 10 "facilitators" are working under the direction of General Assembly President Jean Ping to ensure maximum consensus on a wide-ranging document for UN reform. This is to be presented tomorrow and will form the basis for discussions right throughout the summer. The intention is to secure agreement on a reform plan to be put before world leaders at a special UN summit in New York on September 14th-16th.
The September summit will also review progress towards the UN's Millennium Development Goals on reducing poverty, eliminating disease and increasing educational opportunity. Originally adopted at the 2000 Millennium Summit in New York, the goals are meant to be achieved by 2015. A better-organised and more effective UN will assist greatly in reaching these goals.