Question: When is an election winner not necessarily the winner?
Answer: When it is the Socialist Party in Hungary.
An election race that started out several months ago with the incumbent Socialists seemingly assured of re-election has turned into a race in which predicting the outcome of tomorrow's second and final round of voting with any real assurance is virtually impossible. Perhaps the only certainty is that neither the Socialists nor their surging challengers will come away with a decisive victory.
After chipping away at the Socialist Party's once seemingly insurmountable lead, the right of centre Fidesz Hungarian Civic Party came within four percentage points of the front-running Socialists in the first round of voting two weeks ago.
While the Socialists got 32 per cent of the vote - as they did in 1994 - the complex allotment system left them well short of a parliamentary majority, with approximately 35 per cent of the seats. Four years ago, that same percentage of votes won them more than half of parliament's 386 seats.
Despite that plurality the Socialists invited the Free Democrats into a coalition - giving it a two-thirds majority. But voters abandoned the Free Democrats in the first round of voting as the party's support plunged to less than 8 per cent of the vote.
Fidesz, meanwhile, garnered 28 per cent of the vote - more than tripling its results from 1994. Likewise, the right-wing Independent Smallholders party pulled in nearly 14 per cent - substantially more than four years ago. Finally, the extreme rightwing Hungarian Freedom Party returned to parliament by crossing the 5 per cent threshold with 5.5 per cent of the vote.
Fidesz and the Smallholders party would have a slim majority to form a new government based on the first-round election results, but most analysts caution against making such assumptions.
Mr Tibor Vidos, a political consultant with GJW government relations, strikes a cautionary tone about predicting the results of the election. Among other elements he noted that the Smallholders party - made up of the same leadership - used to be an overtly extremist party. While it has toned down its rhetoric to become more centrist, many voters remain wary of it.
So, while the right-wing parties have withdrawn their candidates from ballots in favour of their respective counterparts who posted a stronger showing in the first round, it is not at all certain that those who voted for Fidesz in the first round will automatically vote for the Smallholders in the second round.
In addition, he thinks the reintroduction of the right-wing extremist party will be just enough to prevent Fidesz and the Smallholders from gaining a majority. And even if the two parties gain enough seats to form a coalition, the Smallholders remain a political liability for Fidesz.
"Fidesz can't have a majority by itself," Mr Vidos said. "It needs the Smallholders, and that scares a lot of people.
"None of the blocks will have a majority," he continued. "Everyone denies the possibility of a leftright coalition. But I don't see another alternative."
As distasteful as it may be for both sides, the only real prospect of a post-election governing coalition may be a broad one between the left and the right.