John Gormley will need to implement a punitive carbon tax if he is to achieve his targets, writes Mark Hennessy
Although Minister for the Environment John Gormley may have created parliamentary history yesterday by producing Ireland's first carbon budget, the problem, however, is that it actually tells us very little about what Ireland needs to do to meet Kyoto Protocol targets.
Ireland will produce 65,610,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide each year between 2008 and 2012 - 600,000 tonnes fewer than it aimed for in the National Climate Change Strategy.
According to a table produced by the Department of the Environment, the reduction on the climate change strategy figures comes from "new measures to reduce emissions".
If only they did. In fact, just 251,000 tonnes of the CO2 reduction will come from anything that Ireland will do: ie better house insulation standards ordered by the Green Party.
The rest is not a reduction at all, but a lower target allowed to energy use and industry because the European Commission did not believe Ireland's carbon emissions from transport. Well might the commission doubt Ireland's traffic figure predictions given that long-distance commuting is becoming the norm.
In the last year alone - even when Ireland's national emissions dropped by 1 per cent - the contribution made by personal and business motorists to global warming increased by more than 5 per cent.
Between 1990 and 2006, CO2 fumes from cars and trucks jumped by 180 per cent and "the growth is unfortunately expected to continue", Gormley said.
In the programme for government, Fianna Fáil and the Greens agreed to cut emissions by 3 per cent a year, which surprised many that Fianna Fáil agreed so quickly and quietly. This translates into an emissions target average of 64 million tonnes a year over the four-year period - 1.6 million tonnes more optimistic than anything so far promised.
Even this target is not enough if Ireland is to meet international obligations under Kyoto, which are nearly a million tonnes lower. Every tonne will have to be paid for.
Undoubtedly committed to the subject, Gormley has introduced emissions-linked vehicle registration taxes and motor tax changes, even if the latter do not come into force until July.
Sensibly, he has decided to make low-energy bulbs mandatory by January 2009. The simple change will cut 700,000 tonnes of CO2 from residential lighting alone when incandescent bulbs are replaced and will save consumers €185 million a year.
So how will Ireland reach the 64 million tonne target or hit the 63 million tonnes allowed by Kyoto within five years? Warm winters would help, so too would a recession, but only a fool would want that. The alternative is a carbon tax and one set at such a punitive enough level it forces people to change long-developed habits covering heating, driving and every aspect of our lives.
The Kyoto targets are just the start of the change needed. Already, the EU has vowed to introduce much sharper reductions, promising to cut emissions by 20 per cent by 2020.