The Government has received a substantial boost from the Budget and now has enough support to be returned to power in a general election, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.
Satisfaction with the Government has risen 15 points to 58 per cent, with dissatisfaction at 35 per cent, down 11 points. The personal ratings of the Taoiseach and Tanaiste, as well as support for the two coalition parties, have also increased.
The poll brings bad news for Fine Gael which sees its support drop four points to 20 per cent. The party is in third place in Dublin with a core vote of 11 per cent, two points behind Labour. Its leader, Mr Bruton, registers a personal satisfaction rating of 37 per cent, his lowest since November 1994.
The state of the parties is: Fianna Fail 41 per cent, up one point on last September; Fine Gael 20 per cent, down four points; Labour 15 per cent, down two; Progressive Democrats 4 per cent, up one; Green Party 5 per cent, up one; Sinn Fein 6 per cent, up one; others 9 per cent, up two.
This outcome is based on a new party weighting system being formally introduced from today by MRBI in the presentation of polling data. The new system follows extensive research to take account of lower voter turnout in recent elections. It was devised to provide a more reliable guide to the outcome of an election.
The core support for the parties is: Fianna Fail 38 per cent, up four points since September; Fine Gael 15 per cent, down two points; Labour 10 per cent, unchanged; Progressive Democrats 3 per cent, up one; Green Party 4 per cent, up one; Sinn Fein 5 per cent, up one; and others 8 per cent, up three points.
The level of "undecideds" has fallen eight points to 17 per cent.
The poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies on Monday and Tuesday of this week.
It gives a substantial personal boost to the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, showing an overwhelming popular endorsement of his Budget. Some 71 per cent believe it was good for the country, 15 per cent believe it was bad for the country, and 14 per cent expressed no opinion.
The poll was taken after it was reported the European Commission was to censure the Government because the Budget was inflationary, but before the Commission confirmed this.
A majority of voters, 51 per cent, believes their standard of living will remain unchanged by the Budget, 35 per cent say their standard of living will rise, while 11 per cent believe their standard of living will drop. Farmers are the most convinced they will benefit financially, with the unemployed least convinced. Of those who thought the Budget was bad for the country, 35 per cent indicated the gap between rich and poor as the reason, with 30 per cent nominating inflation.
Mr Ahern's personal satisfaction rating has risen to 66 per cent, up 11 points since September. Ms Harney's rating has gone up 12 points to 54 per cent. However, 43 per cent are dissatisfied with Mr Bruton's performance as leader of Fine Gael, compared with 37 per cent satisfied. The Fine Gael leader will take some comfort from the fact 72 per cent of Fine Gael supporters are satisfied with him - higher than the 68 per cent internal party rating of Labour's Mr Ruairi Quinn. However, it is far lower than the overwhelming endorsements of Mr Ahern (91 per cent) and Ms Harney (94 per cent) among their party supporters.