Colm O'Gorman's arrival will boost the PDs nationally, but the Wexford constituency is very competitive, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
In 2003 the Labour Party gave Colm O'Gorman their Jim Larkin Justice Award in recognition of his work on behalf of victims of clerical sex abuse. He addressed their national conference and received enthusiastic applause.
In recent months he had discussions with Labour about running for them in Wexford with Brendan Howlin TD. A two-candidate strategy for Labour would be very ambitious but Mr Howlin has a strong personal base in Wexford town and Mr O'Gorman is based in Gorey at the other end of the constituency and has an appeal beyond traditional Labour voters.
Just three days ago Mr O'Gorman spoke in Liberty Hall at a Labour Party function to mark the publication of a booklet associated with its commemoration of the 1916 Rising, to which Mr O'Gorman contributed an essay.
Then yesterday, to the surprise of senior Labour figures, he announced that he wanted to be the PD candidate. Labour was left feeling sore, with party figures questioning how someone attracted by Labour could soon afterwards be so attracted to the PDs. Mr O'Gorman put it down to the PDs' "passion for reform, energy for change and a deep commitment to doing what is right". A hugely respected figure with exceptional communication skills, he will boost the party not only in Wexford but nationally.
However, his chances of winning a seat in the five-seat constituency are very difficult to gauge. Wexford for the PDs is what Ms Harney termed a "greenfield site", with little party presence. In the last general election Wexford elected two Fianna Fáil TDs, one each from Fine Gael and Labour and one Independent, Dr Liam Twomey. It was a poor result for Fine Gael, which once held three seats out of five, but it increased its representation to two in 2004 by recruiting Dr Twomey.
Mr O'Gorman therefore needs either to reduce Fine Gael to one again, reduce Fianna Fáil to one, or take Mr Howlin's seat. All seem very difficult tasks.
If Fianna Fáil is to lose a seat its 40 per cent vote in 2002 has to be reduced by some 10 percentage points, a most unlikely scenario. One of the two Fianna Fáil TDs elected in 2002, Tony Dempsey, has opted not to run again. The party has selected its other TD, John Browne, who is in Enniscorthy, Cllr Seán Connick of New Ross and Cllr Lisa McDonald of Wexford town to run.
Mr Howlin has a strong base in Wexford town as well as collecting votes from elsewhere in the constituency and it seems very unlikely he will be dislodged. Then there is Sinn Féin's John Dwyer, from New Ross, who won half a quota in 2002.
Mr O'Gorman will see some of those people who chose to vote Independent as people he can appeal to. While running under the PD "brand" he has an exceptionally well defined local and national profile which will appeal to the section of the electorate that tends not to support established parties.
This appeal combined with his own charisma and energy and the growing volatility of the urbanised electorate will give him and the PDs hope of a spectacular success.