Bird flu experts meeting in Beijing warned today that time was of the essence in battling a disease that has killed almost 80 people since 2003 and has reached Europe and the Middle East.
The World Bank hopes the meeting will raise $1.2 billion to help improve health and veterinary services in developing countries grappling with outbreaks, and strengthen surveillance in areas not yet affected by the H5N1 flu virus.
"H5N1 is primarily an animal disease. However, given its expanding geographical scope and that H5N1 is endemic in some countries, our assessment is that the risk of pandemic is great," Margaret Chan, the World Health Organization's (WHO) top pandemic expert, said.
"Timing is unpredictable and the severity is uncertain," she told the conference. The virus has already killed at least 79 people since 2003, according to the WHO, and scientists fear it is only a matter of time before the H5N1 strain mutates into a pandemic form that passes easily between people.
Human victims had been confined to East Asia until recently, when three children from the same family died in eastern Turkey, bringing the virus to the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Turkish officials said a fourth victim, a 13-year-old girl, died on Sunday.
"The situation is very serious, very worrying," Food and Agriculture Organization chief veterinary officer Joseph Domenech said.
"You see it is going more and more towards the western part of the world. . . . If the mobilisation of the funds is not coming immediately, in a couple of months we'll need more money."
While difficult for people to catch, nearly 150 people are known to have been infected by H5N1 in six countries, killing more than half its victims and underscoring fears about the havoc the virus could wreak if it does mutate into a pandemic form.
The World Bank estimates that between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion will be needed to prepare for and respond to outbreaks, although that could rise with larger culling programmes.
The amount also does not include human vaccines, which World Bank Vice President Jim Adams said the WHO deals with separately.
The bank approved a $500 million line of credit last week towards the $1.2 billion target, and the European Union has pledged $100 million in aid.
But the senior U.N. coordinator for avian and human influenza, David Nabarrosaid he wanted $1.5 billion in addition to money UN agencies and country donors have already spent fighting the virus in Asia.