Consumer fears of house price fall receding

Consumer fears of a house price crash have lessened over the last six months, according to research carried out by IIB Bank and…

Consumer fears of a house price crash have lessened over the last six months, according to research carried out by IIB Bank and the ESRI.

In a statement, IIB and ESRI said the study was aimed at trying to examine whether the "factors supporting [housing] demand had remained stable" over that period.

The report found that 0.5 per cent of people now expect a serious decline in the price of property, compared with 2 per cent in August 2003.

"We reckon this reflects the resilience of the Irish housing market in the face of a sequence of gloomy comments in the past couple of years alongside signs of a clear improvement in the Irish economy through the later stages of last year."

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The research says an improvement in the domestic employment market reduced a significant source of the threat of a house price fall.

Consumers now expect house prices to rise by 5.5 per cent over the next 12 months, a significant slowing on the 14 per cent inflation rate for 2003.

However, expectations for 2004 are now running a full 1 per cent ahead of August 2003 when house price inflation for the year was predicted at 4.5 per cent.

Describing the house price boom as a "remarkable demand dynamic about which relatively little is known" IIB and ESRI said almost a quarter of those questioned believed "economic trends" were behind the boom, with a further 20 per cent citing population growth.

Low mortgage rates are also seen as critical to the continued strength of house prices. IIB and the ESRI suggested this indicates "near-term affordability is increasingly important".