Gloom and doom are the most plentiful commodities in Northern Ireland this week. The festive season turned to ashes in the mouth after the killings last Saturday.
The bizarre circumstances of the shooting of Billy Wright have still not been fully explained, and many people in both communities are wondering how such a deed was possible in an allegedly controlled environment.
There is a widespread belief that a massacre was planned at the Glengannon Hotel in Dungannon, Co Tyrone, on Saturday night. The intervention of the security guards seems to have aborted the plan. Every night the Northern people, particularly nationalists in remote areas, take fear to their beds. There is serious concern about planned and orchestrated violence tonight in Portadown in the aftermath of the Billy Wright funeral and there is speculation that riots might also take place in Ballymena and Dungannon.
However, loyalist insiders said they did not believe Northern Ireland was on the brink of civil war. Had Wright still been a member of the UVF it might be a different story. He was a thorn in the side of the mainstream loyalist groups which had even threatened to kill him.
Consequently, there was no real reason for loyalist leaders to get upset about the fact that he was dead, whatever their reservations over the manner of his departure and the people responsible for it. The lower ranks of the mainstream loyalist organisations would undoubtedly feel more aggrieved but they would probably be held in check. The "military" capacity of the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) is largely an unknown quantity. Even when Wright was alive and allegedly directing operations from his prison cell, the level of LVF activity, however deadly, was relatively low.
Loyalist sources do not believe the LVF has a plentiful supply of experienced gunmen. "There will probably be a bit of reaction around Tyrone, and that will be the end of it." But that reaction could quite conceivably include a pub massacre, which only requires a handful of operatives and a single gun.
Pubs and places of entertainment or worship in country areas would be in the greatest danger. But in the macabre calculus of paramilitarism, a pub massacre does not provide evidence of the ability to mount a sustained campaign of terror. However vicious and ugly, loyalist sources predicted the reaction to the Wright murder would nevertheless be a "six-day wonder".
Even the rioting which is being predicted for tonight would act as a safety-valve. Police cars and other vehicles might be burnt and roadblocks set up but, as one loyalist said, "That's manageable". The key quantities in terrorist calculations are the numbers of dead. "I don't anticipate a lot of killing, to be honest with you," was how one well-placed loyalist source put it with wintry optimism.
Many of the gunmen of old in mid-Ulster had gone into retirement. They were in their 50s or late 40s and considered themselves fortunate not to have been killed or given life sentences. The handful now on active service was "nothing compared to what was there in the 1970s". Meanwhile loyalist paramilitarism in Belfast was still fairly firmly under the control of mainstream leaders.
There has been speculation that the Wright murder would lead to outbreaks of loyalist violence in north Antrim. It is understood that members of the Ulster Freedom Fighters, cover name for the UDA, in that area are not entirely happy with the current ceasefire, but it is not clear whether they will remain rather grudgingly with their present organisation or defect to the LVF.
The general belief in informed circles in Northern Ireland is that, although there will be further violence and even death, the long-term political consequences are not likely to be hugely significant. There will be keen interest in the attendance at today's funeral, which is expected to number about 2,000. Although Wright himself had good relations with journalists, the red carpet is not being rolled out for the media. Militant loyalists in general are not fond of reporters and camera crews.
Containing any further violence poses a major challenge for the security forces. The passions aroused by the death of Billy Wright mean attacks on Catholics are once again high on the agenda. With the IRA quiescent, the massive security apparatus in Northern Ireland can be focused almost exclusively on the LVF, thought to have about 100 nominal members but a much smaller number of effective killers. The Italian experience in the 1970s showed that even a small group of terrorists can pose major difficulties to the state apparatus. At the end of this week we should know who won.