The Drumcree crisis could end up draining as much as £100 million sterling from the Northern Ireland economy in direct costs and lost revenue, according to latest estimates.
It will be several months before the full financial impact of the Orange Order protest is clear. The security operation at the Co Armagh church is likely to top the £10 million which the 1996 standoff cost. It lasted five days compared with 12 days already this year, which saw 800 extra troops drafted in to enforce the ban preventing the Portadown Orangemen from marching down the nationalist Garvaghy Road.
Most of the money goes on police overtime pay. Officers are also understood to have received several hours of specialised training. Support services, including catering and transport, account for about a quarter of the costs. The other main direct cost will be compensation.
More than 2,500 claims were lodged in 1996, amounting to more than £30 million. Scores of Orange protesters are expected to push for damages after police opened fire with plastic bullets. More than 70 police have also suffered injuries, with four officers requiring plastic surgery after they were hit by a blast bomb. More than 140 houses have been firebombed and 107 families, most Catholic, are being given new homes by the Housing Executive.
There is no estimate yet of how much that will cost the taxpayer. The repair bill for the 10 Catholic churches which were devastated by loyalist protesters even before the standoff began will be at least £3 million. Three of the churches were destroyed.
Several Orange halls have also been attacked, but lost revenue could dwarf the direct costs. Tourist chiefs predict the violent scenes flashed around the world will mean £40 million lost this year. Up to £25 million will be lost to the hotel and bed-and-breakfast trade. They also predict an impact next year - most tour brochures are prepared in September, when memories of the clashes between protesters and riot police will still be fresh.
The chairman of Northern Ireland Tourist Board, Mr Roy Bailie, admitted it was difficult to calculate the final costs. He said: "While it is not easy to put a figure on the current loss to the industry as opposed to the potential for the future, the loss at the peak in tourism of July and August is costing at least £40 million."
Ms Orla Farren, a spokeswoman for the tourist board, said: "It was looking good for '98 but we just aren't getting the bookings we hoped for. There's no doubt this has done us some serious damage. People are losing sight of the fact that tourism could be the major industry in Northern Ireland, but it still only accounts for 2 per cent of the province's output."
The Northern Ireland Security Minister, Mr Adam Ingram, said in the Commons on Wednesday that one overseas company which had been considering a multi-million pound investment in Northern Ireland had got cold feet.
Mr Nigel Smyth, director of the CBI in Northern Ireland, said new inward investment brought in about £200 million each year. To lose even one could cost the economy £20 million. Transport services were also badly hit. They may have lost as much as £1 million after loyalist roadblocks forced widespread cancellations for most of last week.
Mr Smyth said: "Many businesses had made contingency plans, and the impact on firms was less than on 1996, but it has been a very, very severe blow. How can you cost the damage to the image we were successfully beginning to foster for Northern Ireland?"