TAOISEACH BRIAN Cowen is expected to make the minimum number of changes possible to his Ministers of State line-up when he unveils his new team on Wednesday.
The resignation of the existing 20 junior Ministers will become effective from tomorrow, and the Cabinet is expected to sign off on the new list when it meets on Wednesday – its first gathering since the Easter break.
Mr Cowen has already said the number will be cut to 15, though he faces major geographical and gender problems trying to put together a new list. He could remove more than five of the outgoing team but that could prove an unwelcome headache.
Former ministers of state Pat “The Cope” Gallagher, Noel Treacy and John Browne are regarded as serious irritants to the Cowen leadership, occupying what has become known “as the corridor of the disaffected” in Leinster House.
The situation is complicated by the fury shared by many Fianna Fáil TDs about the way in which Mr Cowen handled last week’s row about long-service increments. In his Budget speech, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan said such increments – due once a TD has served for more than six and 10 years respectively – would no longer be paid.
Fianna Fáil TDs were assured immediately at their post-Budget parliamentary party meeting that the increments would not be taken from anyone currently in receipt of them.
However, Mr Cowen, when questioned about the issue last week, said Attorney General Paul Gallagher would examine ways to see if the increments could be removed from those with them.
Legally, it is not believed possible to target some public servants in such a way, particularly since TDs are now linked on the State pay scale to principal officers.
A number of juniors are regarded as safe: Government Chief Whip Pat Carey; Minister of State for Children Barry Andrews; and Minister of State for European Affairs Dick Roche.
Former Green Party leader, Trevor Sargent, now Minister of State for Food, should be equally secure, along with Dublin West TD John Curran, who is in charge of the Government’s drug strategy. Minister of State for Integration Conor Lenihan is unlikely to be moved.
The Cork North Central-based Minister of State for Labour Affairs Billy Kelleher is also thought to be secure.
However, the information backing up predictions is slender since Mr Cowen has not spoken to Cabinet Ministers about his thoughts on the matter. The appointments are made by the Cabinet; but, in reality, are the Taoiseach’s prerogative.
However, the senior Ministers have a strong interest in the appointments since their lives – particularly in terms of the numbers of hours spent in the Dáil on legislation, rather than in their offices – can be complicated by the lack of a junior; or the appointment of one who is not up to the mark.
A number of juniors are in trouble. A reappointment for Meath’s Mary Wallace, now in Health and Children, would be extremely unpopular with parliamentary party colleagues.
Kildare’s Seán Power, now serving in Communications, Energy and Natural Resources is also thought to be at risk.
Politically, Mr Cowen’s actions regarding Dublin will be significant. Ministers of State Noel Ahern and Seán Haughey could be in jeopardy if he opts for wider changes.
However, the party’s vote in the capital is under threat, and there is a strong argument for increasing the numbers of juniors there – even though it is accepted that a junior ministerial appointment is more beneficial to a TD from a rural constituency than an urban one.
