The European Commission will say next week that Croatia is well on the way to joining the EU despite a wave of violence, a draft seen by Reuters today showed.
Croatia could conclude EU entry talks in 2009 if it takes the right steps, the draft strategy paper said, but Macedonia will fail to get the green light to start entry negotiations, according to the report
The annual progress reports on EU entry hopefuls, due to be published on November 5th, will be a mixed bag. Turkey will be told to give a new impetus to reforms and Serbia promised it can get candidate status next year if it takes the right steps.
"Croatia is expected to reach the final phase of accession negotiation by the end of 2009 if it has taken necessary preparatory steps," the draft strategy paper said.
"Subject to Croatia maintaining its overall progress in its preparations, the Commission will present a communication by mid-2009 on a financial package for the accession of Croatia."
The draft is not final and could still be changed before the EU executive adopts it next week.
The small former Yugoslav state of 4.4 million inhabitants, which is at the front of the queue of countries wishing to join the 27-nation bloc, hopes to accede to the EU in 2010.
EU sources said the French EU presidency had strongly lobbied the European Commission against giving Zagreb even an indicative timetable for the conclusion of the entry talks. France and Germany insist there can be no further enlargement of the 27-nation bloc until all member states ratify a reform treaty designed to strengthen its creaking institutions. Irish voters rejected the treaty in June.
The EU sources said the steps Croatia needs to take to conclude entry talks next year include stronger action against corruption and organised crime, and reform of its bloated shipyards and steelworks in line with EU state aid rules.
Zagreb has pledged all-out war against organised crime after a wave of violent incidents, including the killing of a newspaper editor last week, which has cast a shadow over its plans to conclude EU accession talks.
But on Macedonia, the draft said: "The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia made some progress in the course of last year, but does not yet meet the political criteria," criticising the country for a flawed election this year.
Turkey began membership negotiations in October 2005 at the same time as Croatia, but has moved ahead much more slowly. The Commission will tell Ankara it needs to relaunch reforms to move towards EU accession, the draft said.
"New impetus needs to be given to reforms in order to strengthen democracy and human rights, to modernise and develop the country and bring it closer to the EU," the draft said.
European Commission sources say Turkey has put EU-minded reforms on the back-burner this year, as it is busy handling a crisis in which the Constitutional Court narrowly failed to outlaw the ruling AK party.
The Commission will laud Turkey for improving its relations with Armenia and its efforts to help stabilise the Caucasus, as well as for some economic reforms, officials said.
"The report will for the first time say that Turkey is a functioning market economy," a Commission source said.
The draft report said Serbia could get EU candidate status in 2009 if it stepped up reforms and fully cooperates with the International Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.
The EU executive is seeking to delay membership applications from Montenegro, Albania and Bosnia in the hope that Serbia, seen as central to Balkan stability, will arrest a key war crimes suspect and join its neighbours on the EU track.
Reuters