A decision to go ahead with arrests of Croatians wanted by the UN war crimes tribunal has plunged Zagreb's reformist government into a life-and-death struggle 18 months after it dethroned nationalists in elections.
"The government has collapsed!" read the headline on the front page of the leading daily, Jutarnji List, yesterday.
The Prime Minister, Mr Ivica Racan, said after a dramatic emergency meeting of his coalition cabinet on Saturday night that his cabinet had voted to arrest and hand over suspects named in two sealed indictments to the Dutch-based tribunal.
But he also said that four ministers, including the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Goran Granic, from his key ally, the Social Liberal party (HSLS), had resigned over the decision so he would ask parliament for a confidence vote "very soon".
At stake would be the 18-month-old political and economic reforms that have dramatically improved Croatia's international standing after a decade of authoritarian right-wing rule.
But financial cutbacks under the reforms have been unpopular.
The political analyst, Mr Zarko Trkanjec, said it remained to be seen if the reformers had the political wherewithal to arrest the suspects, who enjoy fervent support among war veterans and opposition right-wingers and probably among soldiers and police.
The Parliament speaker, Mr Zlatko Tomcic, confirmed yesterday that Mr Racan had formally applied for a confidence vote.
But this could not be held for at least seven days after the request is made, meaning next weekend at the earliest.
Mr Racan declined to say if the HSLS had effectively quit the coalition but added this would be clear in the next few days.
"This is the most serious crisis of this government and any government since Croatia's independence in 1991. We have never had a situation where a government could not be sure if it had parliamentary backing," Mr Trkanjec said .
"The outcome is either a permanent resolution of all political conflicts or early elections," he said.
One possibility is a split within the HSLS, whose leader, Mr Drazen Budisa, runner-up in last year's presidential election, might be losing support among members and cabinet ministers, only one of whom voted against the arrests.
"If the HSLS splits and some of its deputies vote in favour of the government, the cabinet will survive, accept the reformed wing of the HSLS and carry on," Mr Trkanjec said.
Alternatively, Mr Budisa could retain full control of the party, which could then leave the coalition and force Mr Racan to scramble for a minority government. "A minority government without HSLS backing might not be confirmed by parliament, and then we would have early election," Mr Trkanjec said.
The two sealed indictments are the first against Croatian officials. While the suspects' names have not been made public, it is widely believed the indictments relate to two generals who took part in the 1991-1995 war against minority Serb rebels who rose up against Croatia's move to independence from Yugoslavia.
Although not confirmed, one of the suspects was probably among the group of seven generals President Stipe Mesic sent into early retirement last year after they publicly opposed the new government's willingness to co-operate with the tribunal.
Croatia has previously handed over a dozen Bosnian Croats for alleged war crimes committed in neighbouring Bosnia.
Yesterday state radio again broadcast Mr Racan's news conference from Saturday night in which he stressed there was no real alternative to co-operation with the tribunal.
Under a constitutional clause on co-operation which the nationalist government of the late president Franjo Tudjman enacted under Western pressure in 1996, the justice minister has to sign the arrest warrants and the handover.
But the Justice Minister, Mr Stjepan Ivanisevic, has resigned on health grounds and will remain in the government only until July 15th.