Key constituencies:Fifteen constituencies could hold the key to the result of this election, writes Noel Whelan
It has been a head-wrecking election for anyone trying to analyse the public mood. Throughout this extraordinary campaign, confusion about the potential outcomes has been added to by the volatility reflected in the published opinion polls.
The fact that Irish elections involve the proportional representation system with the single transferable vote in multi-seat constituencies makes it difficult to predict which constituencies will be marginal, let alone what the result will be in those places.
However, as the tally indications are given and the count details are announced next Friday and Saturday, keeping a close eye on what happens in the 15 constituencies listed in the table would be a useful way of tracking how close the overall result is likely to be and whether Bertie Ahern or Enda Kenny will have the upper hand in the quest for government formation.
The home constituencies of the five main party leaders will inevitably attract a lot of coverage but all of them are also included in the list of key marginals.
Bertie Ahern's base of Dublin Central was one of the most competitive in 2002. Fianna Fáil won its second seat there by just 79 votes. The Taoiseach's constituency colleague, Dermot Fitzpatrick, has retired and this time out Ahern, unwisely, has two running mates. Sinn Féin is mounting a renewed challenge with its new candidate, Mary Lou McDonald.
If Fianna Fáil manages to pull off two seats here, it will be good indicator of Ahern's prospects for holding on to the Taoiseach's job. The Fine Gael-Labour dynamic will also be interesting in Dublin Central. There is an outside prospect of a Fine Gael gain and, if it does happen, it is likely be at Labour's expense.
The Dublin South West constituency, home of the Labour Party leader, Pat Rabbitte, is another area where a Fine Gael gain from Fianna Fáil is required. However, this is seen as a relatively easy gain for it. Fine Gael could win here and still be far from government.
The competition for the last two of the four seats in the Tánaiste's constituency of Dublin South East will also be fascinating. Fine Gael's candidate, Lucinda Creighton, now looks likely to win a seat and the Green Party's John Gormley is probably safe. The crucial battle is between Ruairí Quinn, Michael McDowell and the stronger of the two Fianna Fáil candidates.
Until last weekend one might have assumed that one of the Government parties would lose a seat. Now there is a prospect that McDowell would hold on and that Fianna Fáil will also win a seat. If you see this happen then you can be fairly certain the rainbow government cannot happen.
Louth is also a four-seater which should be the focus of much attention. The decision of Máiréad McGuinness to contest here has opened, for a while at least, the real possibility of a Fine Gael gain from Fianna Fáil. Now that the Fine Gael surge has been contained, party strategists have downgraded her prospects. If she wins a seat alongside Fine Gael's sitting deputy Fergus O'Dowd then there is a real chance of a rainbow cabinet.
Dublin North, the constituency of the Green Party leader Trevor Sargent, is one of the demographically transformed four-seaters which could very well determine this election. Both of Fianna Fáil's outgoing TDs and the outgoing Labour TD are not recontesting. Sargent himself is safe. There is also at least one Fianna Fáil seat guaranteed. The Socialist Party, Labour, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will fight for the other two seats. If Fianna Fáil wins two here, Bertie is home and dry.
The five-seat Mayo constituency is very high up the list of Fine Gael's targeted gains. The party has a candidate too many here. It could struggle to manage its vote, not only because Enda Kenny may get a leader's bounce on his home turf but also because Michael Ring's electoral appeal will be hard to restrain. A gain for Fine Gael here is a prerequisite for a Mayo taoiseach.
In Dún Laoghaire, two seats have crossed the party divide in each of the last four elections. Now, with Fine Gael's vote increasing, it will win back at least one seat and the Progressive Democrats are liable to lose out. The Green Party is likely to hold its seat. There could be a second Labour seat or even a second Fine Gael seat. If either of these scenarios happens, it will have to be at Fianna Fáil's expense. It's unlikely now but if Barry Andrews loses his seat you will know it is going to be a very bad weekend for Fianna Fáil.
There are many other five-seaters where Fine Gael needs to pick up a second seat, among them Laois Offaly and Cork South Central, which it could do relatively easily. If it wins a second seat in Carlow Kilkenny, then Fine Gael will be doing very well.
There are two three-seaters in Dublin where Fianna Fáil will battle intensely with Sinn Féin for the last seat. However, outside of the capital, there are a number of more crucial three-seaters which are perched floating across the Kenny-Ahern divide and where the destination of the third seat will be indicative of the trend.
Getting two seats out of three in Cork South West would be relatively easy for Fine Gael, but getting a second seat in Cork North West would be a significant boost. Winning a seat in Tipperary North should also come easily for it, but winning a second one in Limerick West will be much harder. In Sligo Leitrim both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have two outgoing Sligo town-based deputies. Both will be comfortably re-elected. The third seat can be viewed as a fulcrum for the national result. In order to build a majority for Kenny, Fine Gael needs it to come down on their side.