President Glafkos Clerides of Cyprus does not expect real progress in negotiations with the Turkish Cypriots until after their presidential poll in the spring. There was no progress in the first round of proximity talks held last month in New York, and he does not believe the next round, due to open on January 31st in Geneva, will do any better.
"Whether there is a possibility of a breakthrough or not will emerge sometime after the Turkish Cypriot election," perhaps during the third round of negotiations, provisionally scheduled for June, Mr Clerides said. Speaking in the presidential palace at the centre of the world's last divided capital, he said the Greek Cypriots were uncertain over both their interlocutor and Ankara's policy. On one hand, it is not clear that the veteran Turkish Cypriot leader, Mr Rauf Denktash, will be re-elected or what the attitude of a possible successor might be. Mr Clerides explained: "Last time, Mr Denktash was not elected on the first round. And it was only in a second round, when six deputy ministers came from Turkey and campaigned for him, that he won."
On the other hand, Mr Clerides does not see "any clear indications" that Turkey is prepared to abandon its demand for recognition of the Turkish Cypriot breakaway state in northern Cyprus and its insistence on a confederal two-state solution. The Greek Cypriots and the international community oppose recognising the northern state and insist that Cyprus be reunified.
An indication of Ankara's attitude may emerge shortly when the Greek Foreign Minister, Mr George Papandreou, presents the two sides with confidence-building measures.
The second round of proximity talks will be patterned on the first, as Mr Denktash "did not wish to go to direct negotiations", but insisted on "preparatory talks", Mr Clerides said. "It was not my choice."
He described how the formula works. "The UN Secretary General asked us to elaborate our positions on four issues. . . and the other side to do the same." Neither knows what the positions of the other are.
Mr Clerides listed the four subjects as: the security, and constitutional structure, of the future republic, territorial arrangements and the question of properties. Once these issues are worked out, he said, "a name can be put" to the result, federation being the sine qua non for the Greek Cypriots.
"At some stage or other direct negotiations between the two sides in the presence of the Secretary General or his representatives will have to take place," Mr Clerides says. But he does not believe this will happen until the gap in the positions of the two sided has been closed.
Although Mr Clerides expected 1997 to be the year of the "big push" for a Cyprus settlement, it did not happen. While the US and Europe "expressed an interest, they. . . took no action", he says. Success depends on whether they are prepared to work and contribute to a solution.
He said that the presence of 30,000 "Turkish troops on the island and the strengthening of the Greek Cypriot National Guard with sophisticated weaponry could spark a conflict which will suck in Greece and Turkey", despite recent signs of reconciliation.
Mr Clerides will be 81 in April. He has been involved in the quest for a stable republic since 1959 when he took part in the negotiations which led to independence. But the 1960 state was, he says, hobbled by an "unworkable constitution", so in 1963 he drafted the suggestions which the Greek Cypriots submitted to the Turkish side to make the 1960 constitution, as he put it, "more workable".
"Turkey rejected them before the Turkish Cypriots replied," he claims and precipitated violence and the Turkish Cypriot withdrawal from the government.
In spite of past failure, Mr Clerides firmly believes the two communities can live in peace on this small island. He says he will go to Geneva and wherever negotiations may take him to put Cyprus back together again.