A FARMER'S VIEW: Padraic Walshe is one of the State's top dairy farmers and yet he is not sure the family farm near Abbeyleix will be able to support another generation of Walshes.
That uncertainty has increased with the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy agreed last month in Luxembourg, which Padraic believes will cut dairy farm incomes by one-third when it operates fully in 2007.
This has cast a shadow over the future of the dairy farm he took over from his father 13 years ago.
The Irish Farmers' Association activist, and former Macra na Feirme president, was able to expand the 55,000-gallon operation he had inherited, marry and start a family in relative ease.
Now, he has to increase his output by 2½ times and expand his farm by 70 acres to earn less than he was making 13 years ago.
"There are going to be huge losses in the dairying sector because of the CAP reform and the World Trade Agreements. If large quantities of dairy products are allowed in here, it is going to get very bad," he said.
When EU Agriculture Commissioner Dr Franz Fischler reformed other sectors in farming, there was almost full compensation for the losses in direct payments, he said.
"What is on offer to dairy farmers is only 53 per cent compensation based on milk production. It appears we have been sold out on this one," he said.
"We may have retained the milk quota system in the negotiations but this will also mean that we cannot increase production when things get tough and this is leaving the dairy people in a limbo," he said.
He said the sector was experiencing difficult times even before Dr Fischler decided to cut market supports by 19 per cent over the next four years, and limit the amount of product going into intervention, the main area of EU support for dairy farmers.
"Many of us are asset rich but we must retain our land to make a living. You cannot disperse your assets," he said.
"A local politician here used to say it was good to live on a farm but not off its profits and that is the truth.
"The most frequent call I get from other dairy farmers who are looking for advice is to ask me whether or not they should allow their children take over the business.
"While I never say they should not, I am very conscious of the difficulties those young people will face if they go into farming, especially now.
"Dairy farming in Ireland is a family business. We are not like the United States where the dairy industry is based on cheap Mexican labour.
"We don't have that and we don't have that kind of scale of operation. I suspect even if the land structure allowed bigger farms, I doubt if the average dairy farmer could pay for outside labour.
"I am not at all sure, given the recent developments in Brussels, that any of my children, whether or not they want to continue to farm here, will be able to afford to do so," he said.