De Chastelain's flexibility best hope to ending arms impasse

It is a truth universally acknowledged that no peace process can survive without forward momentum

It is a truth universally acknowledged that no peace process can survive without forward momentum. That was the significance of this week's cross-community vote in the Northern Ireland Assembly to accept new government structures and cross-Border bodies.

There is an argument that, if anti-agreement unionists really knew what they were about, they would be making a much bigger fuss over the North-South institutions than the symbolic issue of partial decommissioning. It could be said the weapons imbroglio has distracted attention from the establishment of embryo structures for all-Ireland government in certain areas of public life.

Be that as it may, decommissioning is still the only game in town. The unionist line of demanding visible destruction of guns and/or explosives still stands but there has been some modification of the language in which this demand is expressed. There have been hints of greater flexibility on timing and both Mr Trimble and Mr Taylor have publicly declared their faith in Gen John de Chastelain as an honest broker.

On the republican side, the line has hardened in the wake of Mr Bertie Ahern's reported comments last weekend. The manner in which they were presented and their timing caused a seismic shock in republican ranks. There is bitterness and resentment, even fury, over the Taoiseach's de-marche, which is seen as a deliberate and premeditated intervention and not a cack-handed dropping of the political ball.

READ MORE

It has emerged that a considerable number of those present at the Ulster Unionist Party executive meeting in Belfast on Saturday last knew about the Taoiseach's forthcoming move. For once, their fabled intelligence network let the republicans down. The SDLP did not know what was coming up either, but were not too put out to see their rivals for the nationalist vote being wrong-footed for once.

There is speculation that the Taoiseach's sentiments may be echoed by senior British government representatives in the near future, on the basis that London cannot be seen to take a softer stance than Dublin. At the same time there are some reservations in British government circles about the likely benefits of "boxing the Shinners into a corner" and there are at least some on the British side who feel that the way Mr Ahern's views came across last weekend was "unhelpful".

There has been a lot of talk about "choreography" in this process. A more recent buzzword for this type of activity is "sequencing", meaning that events are planned in a particular order to attain a specific goal. The meeting between Sinn Fein and the UUP which followed last Tuesday's vote was a good example of choreography or sequencing - whichever you prefer. While the final arrangements may not have been made until quite late, clearly the idea for the meeting had been around for some time. not even a placard.

But can choreography resolve the decommissioning impasse? Seamus Mallon suggested on Thursday it was more a question of getting around the problem rather than over it. With the republicans in a huff and imbued with a suspicion of Dublin that wasn't there before, it is not going to be easy to get them to consider formulae for achieving a "winwin" situation. There has been an escalation in the language used by republican dissidents to criticise their former associates and the internal situation in the movement seems to be very touchy and volatile. There is also serious doubt in the republican camp about the true UUP agenda, which they still suspect is one of excluding Sinn Fein.

It would be difficult to overestimate the significance of last Tuesday's vote, according to sources in the Trimble camp. The gradual isolation of the late Brian Faulkner is a prospect to chill the bones of any unionists considering compromise with their nationalist neighbours. There is a new spring in the party leader's step after the successful "turning" of Roy Beggs jnr. UUP insiders had little doubt that Mr Ahern's intervention helped considerably to "bed down" potential defectors. There are reports, too, that the unionist grassroots are more relaxed and less jittery of late.

It is also understood that a deal has been almost fully nailed down between the two main parties to replace Lord Alderdice as presiding officer of the Assembly with a representative from the SDLP. Former Belfast lord mayor Alban Maginness is being widely mentioned and the move is likely to ease the internal situation in the main nationalist party. It is a cost-free concession for the unionists, who need all their Assembly members for the voting lobbies and could not spare, say, Sir John Gorman, on this occasion.

Meanwhile a nation, or rather two nations, wait for Gen de Chastelain to speak. Unionists feel the decommissioning chief takes a similar view to themselves about the necessity for "product", while nationalists and republicans believe he will state that Sinn Fein is, in accordance with the decommissioning section of the agreement, using whatever influence it has to bring about a destruction or handover of weapons. The general isn't saying anything in public but is known to be extremely flexible in his approach to and definition of decommissioning. Since the IRA is not going to do anything which its followers could even remotely interpret as surrender or humiliation, the general's flexibility may be the best hope there is.

The unionists are demanding "more than words - concrete evidence of an intention to deliver" - but sources point out that the initial quantity they seek would have no military significance. Meanwhile republicans are saying the IRA will not decommission - "and that's it". The general will need the wisdom of Solomon, the cunning of Machiavelli and the flexibility of Houdini to solve the problem. It's a tall order, but an increasing number of people are coming round to the view that it may be all right on the night.