Northern Ireland is facing into a period of potential destabilising sectarian conflict, as the Parades Commission reveals its decision on whether to allow the Drumcree parade.
This morning the Parades Commission will announce whether the contentious Orange Order march is to be rerouted away from the Garvaghy Road, or allowed through the nationalist area.
Senior Dublin Government sources said last night that while the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, had received no official notice of the decision it was expected that the commission would opt for "a partial rerouting" of the parade.
Unless the commission can come up with a relatively acceptable alternative to these scenarios its decision, whether it suits the Orangemen or the Garvaghy Road residents, is certain to trigger protest and ultimately possible serious street disturbances.
The Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, acknowledged the scale of the problem. "The Parades Commission is in a difficult position. It always is. It's a no-win situation. It's a conflict of rights," she said yesterday.
The Commission could suggest that the parade be allowed down the Garvaghy Road on alternate years. However, neither side is likely to be willing to compromise.
Mr Breandan Mac Cionnaith of the Garvaghy Road Residents Association said last night that unlike last year he would not be issuing an instruction for nationalists from outside Portadown to keep away from Garvaghy Road.
Effectively, the three previous Drumcree parades were allowed down Garvaghy Road because of the strength of the loyalist and Orange protesters. Mr Mac Cionnaith said, however, that "If people want to play the numbers game, two sides can play at that." Two years ago, when the parade was initially blocked from Garvaghy Road, Orangemen supported by loyalists staged protests that brought much of Northern Ireland to a halt. The Loyalist Volunteer Force also murdered a Catholic man, Mr Michael McGoldrick, during that time.
The Orange Order has refused to reveal its contingency plan if the parade is rerouted. In the worst case there are anxieties that refusal to compromise on Drumcree could threaten the IRA and loyalist ceasefires.
The Catholic Primate, Archbishop Sean Brady, echoing the comments last week of his Church of Ireland counterpart, Archbishop Robin Eames, said it was vital there should be no trouble during Drumcree. He warned that violence could endanger the peace process, and appealed for both sides to find an accommodation.
The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Mr David Trimble, warned that the commission's decision could threaten the peace process. "I hope there are no foolish decisions taken by the so-called Parades Commission and I hope that the violence threatened by the republican movement is not allowed to proceed," he told BBC 1's Breakfast with Frost programme.
