The British and Irish governments have recruited an additional member to the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD), raising speculation that the IRA is primed to begin dismantling its huge arsenals.
From today Brig Tauno Nieminen is joining Gen John de Chastelain and Andrew Sens on the decommissioning body. The Finnish brigadier was formerly a member of the IICD but resigned in October 2001, reducing it to a two-member operation.
He formally takes up his position today, a bank holiday in Northern Ireland, although it is expected that it won't be until later this week and into September that the decommissioning body's major work begins.
Gen de Chastelain is due back in Ireland tomorrow or Wednesday, when he is expected to link up with Mr Sens and Brig Nieminen. The IICD spokesman was not contactable yesterday but it is understood Brig Niemenen was reappointed at the request of Gen de Chastelain.
This would indicate that the general expects a heavy work schedule in September. Sinn Féin continues to insist that the issue of Provisional disarmament is purely a matter for the IRA. Republican sources, however, have indicated that it could take some time to complete the process of decommissioning such are the large stockpiles of arms and explosives to be rendered beyond use.
This could explain why Brig Niemenen was viewed as a necessary addition to participate in overseeing comprehensive acts of IRA decommissioning in different parts of the country. It would also appear to indicate that in the coming weeks the IRA will carry out its commitment to fully decommission, as it pledged in its July statement.
Comments by Minister for Justice Michael McDowell yesterday that disarmament would involve a series of decommissioning acts would appear to support such a scenario. He told RTÉ's This Week programme he expected IRA disarmament to take place "in one sequence of events" and "in fairly rapid order". He did not expect it would happen by "one single press of a button or by one single act of decommissioning, at one single place", but he did believe the IICD would supervise a beginning, middle and end to decommissioning "in the relatively near future".
The fact that senior Sinn Féin figures such as Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness are returning from holidays is also contributing to speculation about relatively imminent IRA disarmament.
In its July statement the IRA authorised a senior representative to re-engage with the IICD "to complete the process to verifiably put its arms beyond use in a way which will further enhance public confidence and to conclude this as quickly as possible".
It also invited two independent Protestant and Catholic cleric witnesses to verify it had decommissioned.
Publicly the British and Irish governments have been maintaining patience on decommissioning, but privately there have been signs of frustration that it was not happening sooner - particularly as issues such as the planned disbandment of the home Northern Ireland battalions of the Royal Irish and the return of "Colombia Three" have so angered unionists.
