The weekend newspaper speculation that the IRA is on the verge of considering the decommissioning of weapons is the latest in a series of such reports since the first IRA ceasefire of August 1994. The speculation has proved unfounded every time.
Senior republican sources, quoted yesterday on RTE, again described the latest reports as unfounded. This rebuttal is supported by the fact that none of the conditions stipulated as necessary for IRA decommissioning has yet come about.
So far, the IRA has resolutely rejected appeals for decommissioning from all quarters, including that from President Clinton after the Sinn Fein leader, Mr Gerry Adams, was granted a visit to the White House for St Patrick's Day 1995.
The IRA has stated three times: in June 1996, in April this year and again last September, that it will not decommission weapons.
Its statement of June 5th, 1996, puts its position clearly. That is: "The IRA will not be decommissioning its weapons through either the front or back doors. We will never leave nationalist areas defenceless this side of a final settlement."
Decommissioning was dropped as a precondition for Sinn Fein's entry into the peace talks process in 1997 after it called its second ceasefire and, as the party points out, the only stipulation in the Belfast Agreement about decommissioning is that it should take place within two years of the Assembly being established. That sets an effective deadline of spring 2001.
The main IRA conditions are the disbandment of the RUC and withdrawal of the British army from Northern Ireland. There has been movement on troop withdrawal and closure of army barracks - the latest being the Whiterock army barracks which overlooked the Turf Lodge and Ballymurphy areas of west Belfast. It was dismantled two weeks ago and its grounds will be used for housing and commercial development.
However, the 31 British army bases and observation posts in south Armagh - including the controversial base in the grounds of the GAA club in Crossmaglen - remain in place, although many are now unmanned.
British army patrols have been withdrawn from nationalist areas, but there are still obvious surveillance operations by military aircraft, with helicopters equipped with video cameras still hovering over nationalist areas of Belfast and some rural areas.
On policing, the republican demands for the disbandment of the RUC and the establishment of a new force whose membership reflects the religious and political demographics of the North will have to await the final outcome of the commission under Mr Chris Patten. It is not due to complete its work until next spring. Any major restructuring of the RUC in Northern Ireland might also be delayed by the prospect next summer of another period of widespread public disorder surrounding the Orange demonstration at Drumcree. This is likely, again, to provide a focus for militant loyalists opposed to the Belfast Agreement and any change of the status quo in the North.
There are concerns among senior security figures that any premature interference in the running of the RUC could diminish its ability to deal with widespread loyalist disorder. There could, in their jargon, be a "security deficit" which could result in even worse assaults on Catholic property than those which occurred this year, culminating in the deaths of the three Quinn children in the firebomb attack on their home in Ballymoney, Co Antrim.
Progress on the restructuring of the RUC, therefore, could be slow and until this happens it is felt unlikely the IRA will engage in any significant weapons decommissioning.
To date, the IRA and its political leadership has given no indication that it is prepared to hand over weapons. However, there is a growing suspicion that the IRA is secretly considering the prospect of decommissioning - if not the actual handing over of weapons.
Although no details have yet emerged, it is believed that both governments and the head of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning, Gen John de Chastelain, might be able to provide some sort of framework to allow the IRA to meet the final decommissioning deadline in the Belfast Agreement.
Under the terms of the agreement, arms could be disposed of by "verifiable destruction" where by US ordnance officers employed by the commission could oversee the destruction of explosives or weapons at a secret location at the dictation of the IRA.
While attention has been concentrated on IRA decommissioning, there are also concerns that loyalists will also refuse to decommission. At the annual conference of the Progressive Unionist Party, the political party associated with the Ulster Volunteer Force, Assembly member Mr Billy Hutchinson said there was no prospect of UVF decommissioning.
The other main loyalist paramilitary group, the Ulster Defence Association, has also shown no sign of even contemplating de commissioning. The UDA's political affiliate, the Ulster Democratic Party, failed to gain any seats in the Assembly elections and so is effectively under no political pressure to decommission.
The two other paramilitary groups which have called ceasefires this year are the Irish National Liberation Army and the Loyalist Volunteer Force. Both are in negotiation about having their prisoners released early but to date, no firm commitment has come from either about agreeing to decommission.
Another deterrent to decommissioning by mainstream paramilitary organisations is the continuing threat from dissident elements in both camps. On the republican side two dissident groups continue to threaten the peace.
The Continuity IRA and the "Real IRA" - the group which carried out the Omagh bombing on August 15th - are still an abiding threat to the peace. On the loyalist side, an LVF splinter group calling itself the Red Hand Defenders is actively working to disrupt the political process and last weekend murdered a Catholic man, Mr Brian Service, in north Belfast.