For the first time the Government now accepts that next Saturday's deadline for setting up the North-South bodies and the executive for Northern Ireland will not be met.
It also accepts that the slippage on the target date for setting up institutions under the Belfast Agreement could run well into next month. The unofficial deadline now being spoken about is November 26th, the day Tony Blair will become the first British prime minister to address the Houses of the Oireachtas.
Furthermore, there is no expectation that any real progress can be made on the decommissioning issue when the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, meets Mr Blair for an important Anglo-Irish review on the margins of an informal European Union meeting in Portschach, Austria, this afternoon.
For all these reasons, Government sources are playing down the prospect of any significant pronouncement from Portschach. "We simply don't have the Semtex to pull out of a hat," was how one official put it.
That is not to say that the two leaders will have a blank page before them when they focus on the emerging crisis surrounding decommissioning today. But, even allowing for the fact that they would hardly announce a new initiative in the middle of Mr Trimble's annual conference, it is reliably understood that the Taoiseach and the Prime Minister have no new ideas to put forward.
A number of formulae have been floated by the two governments over the last few months, in an all-out effort to fudge the differences between the First Minister and Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, and Sinn Fein on decommissioning.
Those differences were put succinctly to the Dail this week during Taoiseach's Question Time. Claiming to understand "both sides of the argument", Mr Ahern explained that, under the terms of the Belfast Agreement, Sinn Fein is being asked to do all it can within two years to ensure that decommissioning takes place. "It was not meant to be a precondition for its entry to the executive. This is the first difficulty," he added.
On the other side, Mr Ahern explained that Mr Trimble had made a commitment to his colleagues to achieve the beginning of a process of decommissioning before he moves to set up the executive. "This is a major problem for him," he said, adding that Mr Trimble's room for manoeuvre was limited.
Mr Ahern concluded by making it clear that decommissioning was not a precondition. "However, whether we like it or not, the reality is that we must make some progress on this issue."
The Irish Times has confirmed that three distinct formulae have been put to Mr Trimble and the Sinn Fein leadership to date, in an effort to overcome the decommissioning logjam.
The first involved Sinn Fein convincing the IRA "to decommission something, weapons, even explosives". That idea was strongly rejected by the Provisional IRA on August 31st.
It released a statement for publication in An Phoblacht saying: "We made our position absolutely clear on this in April and we stand by that statement." The April statement, again published in An Phoblacht, said: "Let us make it clear that there will be no decommissioning by the IRA."
The second formula involved Sinn Fein getting the IRA to agree to a timetable for decommissioning arms.
The idea, which Mr Ahern voiced publicly to Sinn Fein and privately to Mr Trimble last month, was that Sinn Fein would get the IRA to set out when the process would start and that would get Mr Trimble off the hook of obtaining the hardware.
Although neither side has bitten on this idea, it is not yet dead. The Government is still waiting for word back from Sinn Fein that it has exhausted its influence over the IRA on the matter. The third formula was probably the most interesting of all, given the declared determination of Mr Blair and Mr Ahern publicly to stick rigidly to the letter of the Belfast Agreement.
The suggestion was that the date for setting up the full, rather than the shadow, executive could be brought forward from February for a quid pro quo of a gesture on decommissioning. "A big bank in the woods or some such," was how it was put. That idea was firmly rejected.
The apparent failure of these initiatives so far leaves the decommissioning obstacle firmly in the hands of Gen John de Chastelain, chairman of the decommissioning commission. He is expected to make an interim report on his work at some stage.
Government sources do not seem to be confident, however, that the timing, not to mention the content, of his report can coincide with the new deadlines being set for political progress.