Democratic result in Iowa likely to have knock-on effect

New Hampshire: With only five days between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries, candidates will have little chance…

New Hampshire:With only five days between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries, candidates will have little chance to recover from a poor first result.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are running neck and neck in New Hampshire but whoever wins Iowa can expect a "bounce" that should push them to victory in the Granite State.

John Edwards has been campaigning in New Hampshire in recent days, hoping to build enough support to allow him to capitalise on a possible win in Iowa.

The Democratic result in Iowa could also have an impact on the Republican race in New Hampshire because the state allows Independents to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primaries.

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If Obama wins Iowa, Independents are likely to support him in New Hampshire. If Clinton takes Iowa, however, New Hampshire Independents could turn their attention to the Republican race, where their votes would help John McCain.

McCain is hoping that Mike Huckabee wins Iowa, so that a weakened Mitt Romney would be vulnerable in New Hampshire. Romney must win New Hampshire to remain competitive and McCain, whose campaign has just recovered from a near-death experience in the summer, must at least come a close second to have any chance of winning the Republican nomination.

With its libertarian tradition and a relatively low level of church attendance, New Hampshire is rocky ground for Huckabee, who would probably be content with a third-place finish.

Rudy Giuliani has all but abandoned New Hampshire and will be lucky to be in the top three, while Fred Thompson has made little impact in the state. Both candidates will be watching closely, however, hoping that Romney, the most well-funded Republican candidate, will meet his doom in the Granite State.

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times