CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:FORMER FIANNA Fáil minister Noel Dempsey has bowed out in Meath West, and being a local party titan, one of the many questions is who will gain most from his departure.
His loss and the circumstances surrounding it have shaken the party vote. It has also inspired a strategy review by Fine Gael, eager to access his Trim stronghold.
Trim town and county councillor, Ray Butler, lost out at Fine Gael’s original selection convention when Navan-based sitting TD Damien English and 26-year-old Kells area councillor, Catherine Yore, were chosen.
However, the former minister’s departure left a major gap in the south of the constituency around Trim, and Butler was added to the ticket. This has resulted in a risky, three-candidate strategy.
In this constituency the only person definitely expected to be elected is English, who is well regarded and likely to top the poll. For the two remaining seats, the other Fine Gael candidates cannot be ruled out, nor can sitting Fianna Fáil TD Johnny Brady, Labour’s Councillor Jenny McHugh or Sinn Féin’s Councillor Peadar Tóibín. Fianna Fáil is expecting a backlash from voters but the constituency is a heartland and the party could keep one seat.
Based in the Kells area, Brady is running with Navan-based Councillor Shane Cassells who contested the 2005 byelection when former taoiseach John Bruton stood down. Cassells was elected to the council in 2009.
The Trim area has been opened to both candidates for canvassing, but the loss of Kells to Meath East in a boundary revision is a blow to Brady. His largely rural base is likely to favour the incumbent, a farmer, chairman of the Oireachtas committee on agriculture and an assiduous TD. But his recent comments about the adequacy of TD salaries could put him at serious risk.
Much depends on Fine Gael transfers and which of the party’s candidates is eliminated.
Depending where the transfers go, a second Fine Gael TD could be elected or Labour’s McHugh could take the seat. Given Labour’s position nationally in the polls, she cannot be ruled out, especially with three Fine Gael candidates.
She has a fighting chance because while Labour got just 4 per cent in the 2007 general election four councillors were elected in 2009. Party organisation in the constituency is limited however and her transfers could instead favour Sinn Féin.
He has a good 25 per cent of the Navan vote and has worked to increase his presence across the county. Deputy mayor of Navan, he has a background in economics and MBA in enterprise. He is a management consultant and a serious contender for the third seat.
