No plan survives five minutes engagement with the enemy, according to the Prussian military strategist Helmut von Moltke. The assault against the Taliban and the supporters of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan was long anticipated but, once it began, there was no certainty about how it would develop, either in the military or political arenas.
Irish diplomats at the United Nations were meeting to discuss the business for the week ahead on the Security Council when the news broke.
The last time Ireland held the Security Council presidency, in the early 1980s, a Lebanese delegate woke a leading member of our delegation in the early hours to request an urgent meeting to discuss the Israeli invasion of his country. In principle, any member-state could also request a council meeting to discuss the latest crisis, but close observers felt this was unlikely in the short term.
There was a greater probability that the newly appointed US ambassador to the UN, Mr John Negroponte, would brief the 15-member council on the latest events, probably in informal consultations. At an official level, the Irish Ambassador to the UN, Mr Richard Ryan, was in contact with the UN Secretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan, as well as Mr Negroponte and other members of the council.
In the aftermath of the September 11th attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon, the council unanimously approved Resolution 1368. There was significant US involvement in drafting this text, which condemned the attacks and implicitly gave the green light to the US to take action in self-defence. Subsequently the council unanimously passed Resolution 1373, committing all UN member-states to a comprehensive series of counter-terrorist measures, especially in the financial sphere.
There are no strident anti-US voices on the council at present. If, say, Cuba were a member, the atmosphere might be different but the US has the good fortune to be acting at a time when the council as a whole is amenable to measured and precise military action. "Nobody is jumping up and down," UN sources said.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs was on his way to Dublin Airport when the news broke. The fact that a European Union member is in the presidency of the Security Council should make for closer co-ordination between the EU and the UN as they work out their respective responses.
Mr Cowen will brief his EU colleagues on behalf of the council presidency.
Arrangements were under way last night for a telephone conversation between Mr Cowen and Mr Annan to discuss the latest developments. The Minister and his officials were "working the phones" to Irish embassies in Washington and elsewhere and to contacts in other governments. Official sources said: "It is important that there be the maximum monitoring and consultation."
The full Irish team was in place at our UN mission in New York, gathering information and advising the Minister and the Department as events unfolded.
The humanitarian aspects of the crisis are a particular concern. The Security Council had already decided to keep the plight of Afghan civilians under constant review. So far, the US has managed to keep Ireland and the rest of the EU "on side" by what one observer called its combination of "resolve and restraint".
This is personified by the US Secretary of State, Mr Colin Powell; whether his balanced approach is sustained over the coming weeks will determine whether the EU and other countries will maintain their qualified support.