Brussels: The European Commission and Europe's governments were anxious yesterday ahead of tomorrow's referendum in France on the EU constitution, with politicians and officials divided over the consequences of a No vote.
As final opinion polls pointed to a rejection of the treaty, the commission signalled that a French No should not be allowed to derail Europe's constitutional project.
Welcoming yesterday's vote in Germany's upper house of parliament, ratifying the constitution, Margot Wallstrom, the commission vice-president responsible for communication, warned against abandoning the treaty.
"We now have nine member states, representing 220 million citizens, which have approved the constitution. The voice of nearly 50 per cent of the European Union cannot be ignored," she said.
Fear of a French No vote has brought about a steady fall in the value of the euro against other currencies, and European shares fell on international stock markets yesterday. Most EU analysts agree that a French No, particularly if it is followed by a No vote in the Netherlands three days later, could cause one of the biggest crises in the EU's history.
"If there is a No vote on Sunday, it will be a catastrophe for France, for Chirac, for everybody," Luxembourg's prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker said this week.
Mr Juncker, whose country holds the EU presidency, wants other member states to continue ratifying the constitution even if France and the Netherlands reject it. In the event of a No vote in France, he is expected to issue a statement to that effect on Sunday night.
EU officials hope that French president Jacques Chirac will issue a similar call from Paris on Sunday night, and the commission president, José Manuel Durao Barroso, is expected to add his voice to the demand for the ratification process to continue.
Mr Juncker will meet all 25 EU leaders for individual talks in Luxembourg next week, starting with Germany's Gerhard Schröder on Monday and including a meeting with the Taoiseach on Thursday. Officially, next week's meetings are part of the negotiations towards a new seven-year budget plan for the EU, but they are bound to be overshadowed by the referendums if either France or the Netherlands votes No.
Indeed, Mr Juncker admitted this week that a budget deal next month is unlikely because of Mr Schröder's decision to call an early election.
EU leaders are due to meet in Brussels on June 16th, and Mr Juncker's plan to continue ratification could face opposition during that summit, particularly from leaders who face difficult referendums on the constitution.
Tony Blair's public position is that Britain will hold a referendum as planned "if there is a treaty to ratify". Privately, British officials argue that further referendums would be pointless after France and the Netherlands say No because two No votes next week would mean that the constitution will have to be revised if it is to come into force.
London, which assumes the EU presidency on July 1st, believes that it would be better to take stock after next week's referendums and to consider if it is possible to renegotiate the constitution.
The political situation is complicated by Germany's election in September and by likely changes in France, where prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin could be sacked and Mr Chirac would be badly wounded.
EU leaders will seek to assert their control over events after two referendum defeats next week, but the uncertainty and volatility that are sure to follow such votes will make their task exceptionally difficult.