Security sources in Northern Ireland have been expressing concern for some months that loyalists are again conducting a murder campaign directed at Catholics with the intention of creating political instability.
Elements of the Ulster Defence Association, whose leadership declared a ceasefire in October 1994 but which has since split up into local groups, are suspected of involvement in attacks in recent years, some of which have involved the use of under-car bombs.
These UDA groups appear to be acting in unison with the remnants of the Loyalist Volunteer Force, which also called a ceasefire last year. Together, they are using the cover-names Red Hand Defenders and Orange Volunteers to admit responsibility for a series of attacks on Catholic homes, pubs and churches.
The UDA elements are believed to have brought commercial ex plosives and detonators with them into this campaign. The UDA also developed a crude but effective under-car bomb about three years ago and used one to injure a Belfast republican figure, Eddie Copeland, at Christmas 1996. The same UDA group is believed to have been responsible for using a similar device to kill Glen Greer (28), a Belfast loyalist who was involved in a dispute over drugs with other loyalists, in Bangor in June 1997. Other bombs were left under vehicles belonging to Sinn Fein members in Derry city, Bally castle, Co Antrim, and west Belfast. Other politically unconnected Catholics were targeted because they were living in mainly Protestant areas. In these cases the bombs failed to go off or only partially exploded.
Since December there have been at least a dozen pipe-bomb attacks against Catholic targets. Seven Catholic families, mostly living in mainly Protestant areas, had bombs left at their homes; four Catholic-owned pubs were attacked and one pipe-bomb was thrown at churchgoers at Grey stone church in Antrim on February 1st. No injuries were caused and the incidents attracted little media attention.
Loyalists also carried out the sectarian murder of a Catholic man, Brian Service, who was shot dead in north Belfast last October. Loyalists in Portadown were also responsible for killing RUC officer Const Frank O'Reilly, a Catholic, during a riot in Portadown in September. He received head injuries from a pipe-bomb containing commercial explosives.
Loyalists have also been mounting almost nightly firebomb at tacks on Catholic families and business premises, particularly where they are in the minority. A firebomb was thrown into the
home of a Catholic-Protestant family in Larne, Co Antrim, about 2 a.m. yesterday when they and their five children were asleep. Had the bomb not shattered on the window frame, the family could have suffered a fate like that of the Quinn family in Ballymoney, Co Antrim, last July when three young children died.
In the past few months there has been a concerted campaign of nocturnal firebombing and intimidation against Catholics in southeast Antrim from the Shore Road in north Belfast to Larne.
Last week the Sinn Fein Assembly member for North Belfast, Mr Gerry Kelly, accused the UDA of an orchestrated campaign. He was speaking after attacks on the remaining 25 families in Graymount, north Belfast, which once had 90 Catholic families. After re cent firebomb attacks, the Catholic families remaining have applied for transfer to public authority housing away from the area.
Ms Rosemary Nelson's murder was clearly timed to affect the out come of the political talks in Washington as part of the St Patrick's Day visits by the North's leading politicians. Last year at this time, the dissident "Real IRA" tried to plant a huge car bomb in the North which failed when the Garda intercepted the gang in Dundalk only days before it was to be delivered. Senior security sources say the loyalist violence is co-ordinated and has the specific intention of causing political instability. They believe the intention is to rekindle communal violence by raising the level of their attacks to the point where republicans are likely to retaliate. Retaliation could make it difficult for the Ulster Unionists to reach an accommodation with Sinn Fein.
This well-tested tactic was most successfully used in the past by the IRA itself and is almost identical to the agenda of the republican dissidents who carried out the Omagh bombing.
There is also a concern among senior security figures that the continuing political vacuum in the North - with a failure to reach an accommodation over decommissioning and entry of Sinn Fein into the Stormont executive - is providing loyalist dissidents with the opportunity to foment further dissent and instability.
The main concern is that in the absence of a more stable political situation, loyalist violence will grow as the marching season approaches. The dissidents are supporters of the Drumcree Orange men and have been responsible for the almost nightly stoning at tacks and general harassment of Garvaghy Road residents which have continued since last July.
The dissidents are likely to step up their attacks if another standoff occurs at Drumcree, security sources predict.
Ms Nelson's killers would have been keenly aware of her representations on behalf of the Garvaghy Road residents and popularity among local Catholics. Her work would make her murder a particularly hard blow to that community.