Mr Jeffrey Donaldson is unlikely to lead a mass defection from the ranks of the Ulster Unionist Party, leading anti-agreement allies indicated last night.
The Lagan Valley MP was still formally "considering his position" following the narrow failure of his challenge to Mr David Trimble's leadership at Monday night's meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council.
However, as fellow MP, Mr David Burnside, publicly called on Mr Donaldson and party officer Ms Arlene Foster to continue the fight within the UUP, other senior figures in the anti-agreement camp privately expressed some hope that he could be persuaded to do so.
Against that, sources close to Mr Donaldson remained convinced that he had reached "break point" and one rival politician suggested that if he failed to quit the UUP now "he will be stuck forever with the sense that he can never make up his mind".
The Trimble camp, meanwhile, appeared to be goading Mr Donaldson to make good his resignation threat by indicating the likely withdrawal of a "no confidence" motion which had been scheduled to be debated by his Lagan Valley constituency association next week.
While publicly spun as "an olive branch" pro-Trimble sources confirmed the expected move was in reality designed to "put it up to him". Following his victory on Monday night Mr Trimble called on Mr Donaldson to remain within the UUP, while adding that he would expect him in future to abide by the party's policy. However, one of those hoping to persuade Mr Donaldson to change his mind said Mr Trimble's demand was "meaningless" and that the party's continued 54/46 split meant the leader had no greater power than before to impose party discipline. In interviews yesterday Mr Donaldson again expressed his reluctance to see the creation of yet another unionist party, repeating his preference for a realignment and "coming together" of unionist forces.
This heightened speculation that he might sit for a period as an independent in the House of Commons on a transitional route to eventual membership of the DUP. DUP sources told The Irish Times that in either context Mr Donaldson would provide an important dimension to their quest for an electoral mandate for a renegotiation of the agreement. However, some of Mr Donaldson's admirers in the UUP insist that resignation is not in his personal interest and, crucially, might actually weaken the prospect of an anti-agreement bloc commanding the unionist majority - and thus be able to prevent Mr Trimble's return as First Minister - after any election to a new Assembly. Despite Mr Trimble's victory in Monday's vote on the Donaldson motion rejecting the British-Irish Joint Declaration as the basis for restoring the Assembly, the indications are that leading anti-agreement campaigners like Mr Burnside, former party leader Lord Molyneaux, and party president the Rev Martin Smyth, believe they have an effective "arm lock" on the party's terms for a return to devolution and that Monday's outcome has not in real terms changed the overall political situation in Northern Ireland.
These indications also reinforced a growing suspicion last night that Mr Donaldson had been "flying solo" with his resignation threat and had not sought assurances from close friends and colleagues that they would follow him out of the party.
Confirming that he has no plans to quit the party, Mr Burnside told The Irish Times: "I have the greatest admiration for Jeffrey [and Ms Foster]. I supported their motion. I believe the strongest message we were sending out [on Monday night] would have been Jeffrey's resolution. I believe it is a tactical mistake that the leadership has made. But so be it, they've made tactical mistakes before.
"I want Jeffrey and Arlene to stay in the party. Now is not the time for more splits, the unionist population is just fed-up with splits and divisions."