Double the stakes when the odds are bad

Inspector Renault of Casablanca found a very effective strategy for diverting the unwelcome attention of the persistent Major…

Inspector Renault of Casablanca found a very effective strategy for diverting the unwelcome attention of the persistent Major Strasser: "Realising the importance of the case," he tells the German, "my men are rounding up twice the usual number of suspects." Julius Caesar used a similar ploy when faced with meteorological inconveniences in 55 BC.

It was on this day, August 26th, in 55 BC, that one of Caesar's most famous exploits got under way, and it began in excellent conditions.

Writing in Chapter IV of his famous book De Bello Gallico he tells us: "Little of the summer remained, and wintertime in Gaul comes early because of its northerly position; nevertheless, Caesar was intent on leading an expedition into Britain. The weather being favourable, he cast off before midnight, and Caesar himself reached Britain with the leading ships at about nine the following morning."

But subsequent events were not free of meteorological adventure: "On the fourth day after our arrival in Britain, the 18 ships carrying the cavalry set sail from the upper port with a gentle breeze. Soon, however, a violent a storm arose so that none could hold its course, and they shipped much water."

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Eadem nocte accidit, he continues, ut esset luna plena, qui dies maritimos aestus maximos in oceano efficere consuevit: "That same night it happened that there was a full moon, which normally brings about the very highest ocean tides. The ships that had been beached became water-logged; many were smashed and others lost their cordage, anchors and other rigging, and were rendered useless."

This, needless to say, was something of a setback for poor Caesar. He returned to Gaul, and as the weeks passed he became more cautious, until eventually he employed the Inspector Renault stratagem: "Doubling the number of hostages he had previously demanded from the Britons, he ordered them delivered on the Continent, for the equinox was near, and as his ships were shaken, Caesar did not think it wise to risk a winter crossing".

It is interesting that even then, more than 2,000 years ago, the notion that gales are more frequent near the equinox was prevalent.

Modern statistics do not fully bear this out, although there is no doubt that particularly vicious storms can often happen in September when the remains of a long-deceased Caribbean hurricane sometimes acquires renewed vigour as it approaches the eastern edge of the Atlantic.

Be that as it may, Caesar's undertaking, like almost everything he organised, succeeded, and 10 more successful years were to elapse before his ignominious expiry on the Senate floor in Rome with the plaintiff query: Et tu, Brute?