The by-election results have confirmed what many of us have known for some time but were afraid to say aloud - this Government may prove to be a temporary little arrangement after all. Not that anyone on the Government side wants it that way but events are conspiring to make it so.
Drapier does not see any immediate need for instability. The Government majority is secure and will remain so for the foreseeable future. With the exception of Joe Higgins, none of the Independents has any great or compelling reason to run to the country, and all must have in the back of their minds the realisation that the electorate often deals harshly with people who precipitate an unwanted election, as Sean Dublin Bay Loftus found to his astonishment years ago.
For the moment, the Independents may huff, puff and strut, but they won't all do it at the same time or march in the same direction - at least not all at once. In the current fashionable phrase, their abstentions and their votings will be differential.
The danger, of course, is that in such circumstances accidents can, and do, happen and when this Government falls, as fall it will, it will be because of the cock-up factor - of too many Independents talking themselves into trouble and being forced to put their votes where their mouths have led them.
Drapier, however, has a word of caution. The danger, as Drapier sees it, is that an unpopular issue will surface and the Independents, to a man and to a Mildred, will feel they have no option but to vote against the Government.
In earlier times, such an issue would be things like hospital closures or major cutbacks or tax increases. But Drapier has to ask a question: are there any unpopular issues around any more? At least ones that can't be handled?
The moral issues, by and large, are off the agenda; we live in an age of tax cuts and unpopular closures are a thing of the past. So, the North aside, and Drapier will come to that in a moment, are there any really unpopular issues on the agenda? Drapier thinks not.
And there is Bertie's Ahern's greatest skill - defusing unpopular issues before they become lethal. Bertie is par excellence the fixer and if you think his U-turn on credit unions was swift and total you ain't seen nothing yet.
Bertie has a good nose for upcoming trouble and an even better nose for survival. His early warning system is second to none and will be used to the full in the coming months.
As for the North, Bertie has the backing of John Bruton, Proinsias De Rossa and Ruairi Quinn. His own party will hold firm, which means we may have plenty of sounds off-stage from Harry Blaney, Jackie Healy-Rae and Caoimhghin O Caolain but does anyone seriously believe any of these would prefer a Bruton-led government?
Drapier would add only one word of warning. In the words of Albert Reynolds, you may get the big ones right; it's the small ones which get you. And that's how it's going to be. The small and the unexpected are the ones to watch out for. But we rarely do.
But before getting into analysis let Drapier congratulate the victors. Sean Ryan was unlucky in June and once he emerged as the early front-runner, he attracted both a sympathy vote and the anti-Government vote. That, plus the fact that he was really the only "name" candidate in the field, put him into an early and unassailable position.
Jan O'Sullivan was a splendid senator in the last administration and is widely known and respected in Limerick. She ran a great campaign and will be a real addition to Ruairi Quinn's team.
Mary Jackman put in a strong and highly-credible performance. Come the next general election, both she and Jan O'Sullivan will be TDs and not at the expense of Michael Noonan, who worked himself to the bone on her behalf.
Ruairi Quinn has got off to a great start. These victories are the boost he needed, coming at the time he needed them. But Ruairi, like Drapier, is around long enough to know that by-elections can be a fickle guide and people can behave very differently in a general election. Ask Kathleen Lynch or Eric Byrne. And Ruairi knows he has a lot of ground to make up before he thinks of precipitating a general election.
So, should Bertie Ahern call all our bluffs and go to the country?
If need be, Drapier can write the script for him: dangerous times ahead, the need for certainty, stability above all, and more of the same, all designed to frighten the electorate.
It's what Dev might have done and what Sean Lemass did to great effect in 1965. But even for de Valera it didn't always work. The death this week of Jack McQuillan reminds us that Dev called it wrong in 1948 when, after two bad by-elections, he rushed to the country with the cry: "Fianna Fail or doom". And the country, in James Dillon's words, responded: "Doomed be damned".
And in passing, let Drapier pay a warm tribute to Jack McQuillan, one of the great champions of the underdog and a great fighter for justice.
So will Bertie go for the quick fix? Drapier thinks not. For a start, there is no real evidence the electorate puts all that much store on stability or sees too much difference between one coalition and another. In other words, there is no guarantee that Fianna Fail would win any extra seats and every chance it might lose a few.
For the PDs to go to the country now would be lunacy. There are no PD gains on the horizon; Laois/Offaly and South Kildare are well and truly off the shopping list and even holding the existing seats would not be easy.
What Mary O'Rourke said of the last government is even more true of this one - they are utterly glued to each other and the only real hope the PDs have is to hang in, try to find some new candidates and, above all else, hope something turns up. It's as bleak as that.
So the Government will hunker down, be grateful for the St Patrick's Day break and seek to regroup its forces.
Fine Gael has also much to contemplate; Limerick was a good performance, Dublin North was not. The question for John Bruton is whether Dublin North was a one-off or whether it represents something deeper. The question is real enough to give him pause for thought before he precipitates an election. He needs new candidates and he needs the local elections to get the party back into fighting shape.
But no matter what parties or leaders may want, these by-elections have changed the mood in here. The complacent expectation that this was a secure Government is no more. The doubts have been sown and will not go away. How it will all end even Drapier does not know. Not yet, at any rate.