Poll analysis:Fine Gael support held up reasonably well in all regions, writes Stephen Collins, Political Correspondent
A massive increase of more than a third in the Fianna Fáil core vote in Dublin has underpinned the party's surge in the latest TNS/mrbi opinion poll.
There was also a significant rise in Munster and an increase in support across all social classes to give the party its best opinion poll showing since the last election.
While the level of support for Fine Gael held up reasonably well in all regions, the drop in the level of Labour support in Dublin was as dramatic as the Fianna Fáil rise. Support for the smaller parties was broadly in line with the last poll.
The figures for Dublin were: Fianna Fáil 38 per cent (up 10 percentage points), Fine Gael 13 per cent (down two points), Labour 10 per cent (down five points), Sinn Féin 11 per cent (no change), Greens 9 per cent (up three points), PDs 1 per cent (no change), Independents/Others 6 per cent (down three points) and Undecided voters 15 per cent (no change).
Munster was the second most volatile region with Fianna Fáil up six points to 39 per cent, Fine Gael down two points to 25 per cent with the other parties seeing minor changes since the last poll. Labour was unchanged on 8 per cent as were the Greens on 3 per cent while Sinn Féin was up 1 point to 7 per cent.
In the rest of Leinster outside Dublin, Fianna Fáil actually declined by one point to 41 per cent, Fine Gael remained the same at 20 per cent, Labour was down two points to 6 per cent, while Sinn Féin and the Greens were down one to 5 per cent.
In Connacht Ulster, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were exactly the same as the last poll with 37 per cent and 30 per cent respectively. Labour support dropped from 8 per cent to 4 per cent, Sinn Féin dropped from 10 per cent to 7 per cent. The Greens remained on just 1 per cent while the PDs were at 3 per cent, the best region in the country for the party.
In terms of social class Fianna Fáil gained three points among middle and working class voters but its biggest gain was among farmers where it pulled into a 10 point lead over Fine Gael with 46 per cent to 36 per cent.
Fianna Fáil was strong across all age groups ranging from 35 to 39 per cent in the various age categories between 18 and 65. It was strongest of all among the over 65s where it got the support of 46 per cent. By comparison, Fine Gael was extremely weak among the 18 to 24 year olds where it attracted only 12 per cent support but it ranged between 20 per cent and 25 per cent across all other age groups.
One striking difference in this poll from previous ones was that while Fianna Fáil was equally attractive to men and women, Fine Gael was distinctly more attractive to men. The only other party with a similar leaning was Sinn Féin, which has always been more attractive to men than women. By contrast, the Greens and the PDs were more attractive to women voters in this poll, as in previous ones.
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael scored better among people who said they were extremely likely to vote than among those who expressed themselves less likely to go to the polls on Thursday.
A notable feature of the poll was that the number of undecided voters at 15 per cent was exactly the same as in the previous poll 10 days earlier. It indicates that there is potential extra support still available for all the parties.
When it came to satisfaction ratings, Ahern increased his lead as the most popular party leader. His national standing of 58 per cent was replicated in Dublin and Connacht Ulster and he was even more popular in the rest of Leinster where he is at 63 per cent. He was less popular in Munster but not to any significant degree.
Ahern was equally popular among men and women and across the various social classes. Among the different age groups he was most popular with those in the 25 to 34 age bracket but there was no significant difference.
Among Fianna Fáil supporters, Ahern's rating was a massive 92 per cent. His lowest rating of 28 per cent came among Fine Gael voters but Green voters were almost equally dissatisfied. Sinn Féin voters were more supportive with 38 per cent satisfied while among Opposition parties Labour voters gave the Taoiseach a rating at 40 per cent.
Enda Kenny's satisfaction rating improved again and he was strongest among middle class voters, where his rating was 51 per cent and among farmers where it jumped to 59 per cent. He got massive backing from Fine Gael supporters with 84 per cent satisfied but that dropped to 47 per cent among Labour and PD voters and 44 per cent among Green Party supporters.
Sinn Féin voters were equally divided on Kenny and it was only among Fianna Fáil supporters that he attracted a strong negative rating with 34 per cent saying they were satisfied and 45 per cent expressing dissatisfaction.
There was some good news for the Tánaiste Michael McDowell, with his satisfaction rating up two points to 36 per cent. He was almost equally strong among Fianna Fáil as among PD supporters but he attracted a massively negative rating from Fine Gael and Labour voters who were equally hostile to him.
Surprisingly, Sinn Féin voters were slightly less hostile to McDowell than supporters of the alternative alliance while Green voters were a bit more tolerant again, in spite of his repeated attacks on their policies.
Labour leader Pat Rabbitte attracted strong support among his own party supporters with 78 per cent satisfied. Fine Gael voters were also very happy with Rabbitte and 68 per cent expressed satisfaction.
Strangely, Fianna Fáil voters were happier with Rabbitte than Green Party voters. While Sinn Féin voters were least happy with him.