A sharp decline in Fianna Fáil and Government support is revealed by the first post-election Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll, writes Damian Loscher, Managing Director of TNS mrbi
Satisfaction with Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's performance has also fallen noticeably. A spate of high-profile controversial Government decisions may have led voters to voice their concern and reconsider their voting intentions; however, to ascribe this headline decline in full or in large part to a series of bad news stories would be to overlook the dynamics of floating voters and to ignore broader patterns in voting behaviour.
Conducted on October 29th and 30th, among 1,000 adults aged 18 years and upwards, at 100 locations across Ireland, it shows support for Fianna Fáil has dropped to 33 per cent, a fall of eight percentage points since the poll immediately preceding the May general election. Satisfaction with the Government has also taken a drubbing, down to 37 per cent, a fall of 15 percentage points.
Viewed from a wider perspective, the decline in support for Fianna Fáil comes as no surprise. After all, the party was tracking between 34 per cent and 37 per cent earlier this year and reached 41 per cent support only in the days immediately prior to the election as floating voters swung behind Bertie Ahern following the televised leaders' debate. These floating voters were, arguably, never likely to stay with Fianna Fáil and may now be suffering from a type of voting dissonance, unsure as to why exactly they voted Fianna Fáil now that the context of an election has been removed.
Interestingly, the drop in both the Fianna Fáil first-preference vote and overall Government satisfaction mirrors the trend following the 2002 general election.
The 2002 post-election poll showed Fianna Fáil down eight points and government satisfaction down 25 points. These shifts also came against a backdrop of an economic slowdown - a stagnating property market, waning consumer confidence and volatility in international financial markets. The similarity between the 2002 and 2007 post-election environments does not end here. Both then and now the Government made a point of responding decisively to the uncertainty facing the economy by putting in place measures to prevent double-digit increases in public spending and by ruling out a giveaway budget.
But if history has a habit of repeating itself, Fianna Fáil can reasonably expect to recover in time, although history also tells us that it may have further to fall before the recovery sets in. It also tells us a change in economic fortunes may be needed to help create the type of climate needed for a strong recovery to take root, which many economic commentators reckon can be less relied upon this time.
As members of the Government, the honeymoon for the Greens is over too. In this latest poll, the Green Party registers 5 per cent support, one point lower than when the party was last polled, prior to entering into Government. Contrast this with the outcome in 2002, when the Greens were in opposition and the first Irish Times/TNS mrbi post-election poll showed a gain of three points, lifting support for the party to 8 per cent of first-preference votes. For better or worse, the fortunes of the Greens are inextricably linked to perceptions of Government performance.
The PDs are holding their own with 2 per cent of first preference votes. Arguably this 2 per cent is comprised of loyal PD followers, with fair-weather PD voters carried away in the storm. From this base the party must look to grow, although the association between the PDs and problems in the health service makes the task more challenging.
Satisfaction with Mary Harney as acting leader of the PDs reflects the public's lack of confidence in the health service, with just 35 per cent of voters expressing satisfaction with her performance as party leader.
At 31 per cent, support for Fine Gael is four points higher in today's poll. In the years leading up to the 2007 election, support for Fine Gael had been building slowly, peaking at 31 per cent before fading as the election neared. Thus, Enda Kenny and his team will hope to take up where they left off, with the wind at their backs.
Labour will also welcome today's results, registering a significant gain of five percentage points, bringing the party to 15 per cent support. This is not unfamiliar territory for Labour. Not so long ago, before the Mullingar Accord, Labour could be relied upon to deliver poll performances in the mid-teens or higher, and Eamon Gilmore will hope that these gains are more than just anti-Government protest votes, but rather are a sign that previously lapsed voters have reconnected with the party's new leadership.
In much the same way that the PDs cannot claim to be basking in the glow of positive media coverage, Sinn Féin too has been keeping a low media profile. At 7 per cent, Sinn Féin seems to be appealing to a core group of supporters, with no evidence to suggest that the party has benefited from the electorate's swing away from Fianna Fáil.
This year's election was followed by a raft of leadership changes and today's poll provides the first glimpse of how satisfied voters are with performances to date.
Brian Cowen, the new Tánaiste, tops the leaders' satisfaction poll with a 49 per cent satisfaction rating, ahead of Bertie Ahern, who has lost 15 percentage points since May and has dropped into second place with 43 per cent satisfaction. It is not unknown for the Taoiseach to be beaten in the popularity stakes (for example, Mary Harney managed it on several occasions), but for the Taoiseach to be outdone by a Minister for Finance in uncertain economic times may raise a few eyebrows.
The battle for third position on the leader board is hotly contested between Enda Kenny (with 42 per cent satisfaction), Gerry Adams (41 per cent) and John Gormley (40 per cent). Eamon Gilmore, the new Labour Party leader, records just 30 per cent satisfaction, some way adrift of the level achieved by Pat Rabbitte just prior to the election (49 per cent). That said, with 49 per cent of voters yet to form an opinion on Mr Gilmore, it would be more accurate to conclude that his true satisfaction rating is yet to emerge.
Today's poll tells us much about how preferences have changed in the six months since the election. Perhaps more interesting is what it reveals about the cyclical nature of voting patterns. It suggests that in good times we want a government that will listen, whereas in bad times (or at election time) we want a government that will lead. If this is true, Brian Cowen is correct in thinking a cautious budget is worth the short-term electoral pain because it will translate into electoral gain when it matters, in 2012.