Africa produces less pollution than any other continent but is the most at risk from climate change - and is the least equipped to deal with it, writes Frank McDonald, Environment Editor, in Nairobi
An old friend, Dr Edward King from Achill, Co Mayo, recently climbed to the summit of Kilimanjaro, Africa's highest peak at 5,895m (19,340ft). It was a huge personal achievement for him, as it has been for many others, although the ascent would have been more arduous 100 years ago.
Then, Kilimanjaro - "Shining Mountain" in Swahili - had an ice-cap of 12sq km (4.6 sq miles). That's now down to about 2sq km (0.7sq mile), and it may be gone altogether in 25 years. The ice-cap on Mount Kenya, the continent's second-highest peak at 5,199m (17,157ft), is also melting and scientists have no doubt that climate change is to blame.
But the rapid recession of this equatorial ice is merely the most visible sign of what global warming has in store for Africa. In a report released two weeks ago, the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) said the continent's vulnerability is even more acute than had been supposed.
Based largely on data compiled by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the report paints an alarming prospect for many of Africa's 812 million people and the continent's natural habitats - particularly if sea levels rise, as predicted, due to melting in the Arctic and Antarctic.
Its key findings, released to prick the conscience of environment ministers attending the UN Climate Change Summit in Nairobi - the first one to be held in sub-Saharan Africa - include the following predictions:
The number of people at risk from coastal flooding will rise from one million in 1990 to 70 million by 2080.
Up to 30 per cent of coastal cities, towns and villages in the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, the Gambia and Egypt could be inundated.
Cities most at risk include Alexandria (Egypt), Cape Town (South Africa), Maputo (Mozambique), Dar-es-Salaam (Tanzania) and Lagos (Nigeria).
Coastal zones will also be hit by reduced fish stocks, coral bleaching, saltwater intrusion, and loss of beach facilities and tourism revenues.
Around 40 per cent of natural habitats for animal and plant species could vanish forever, while many more will either contract or shift.
... Cereal crop yields will fall by at least 5 per cent, and there will also be significant declines in subsistence crops such as millet and sorghum.
Extreme weather such as droughts and floods will increase, especially in sub- Saharan Africa, where they have already taken a heavy toll.
Over the next 50 years, there will be a marked decrease in rainfall over northern parts of Africa and a corresponding increase in the west.
... By 2025, 480 million people could be living in areas where water supplies are scarce or under stress, largely as a result of climate change.
In short, global warming is set to make most of the problems that Africa already faces immeasurably worse. Many dry areas are going to get drier and wet areas wetter. Its people are "going to be caught between the devil of drought and the deep blue sea of floods", according to Andrew Simms, of the New Economics Foundation.
As if to dramatise the dangers, torrential rain in Kenya this week caused widespread flooding in and around the southern coastal city of Mombasa as well as Garissa, 200km (124 miles) east of Nairobi. More than 20 people were killed and some 60,000 displaced as homes were destroyed and bridges swept away. The health ministry issued a cholera alert.
At the same time, other parts of the country - particularly in the north - are suffering serious and persistent drought, which is killing animals and forcing at least half a million pastoralists to abandon their traditional way of life. Lake Nakuru, in the Rift Valley, is also drying up and its famed flamingo population may have to move elsewhere.
Ironically, such tragedies are happening on a continent that's least responsible for contributing to climate change. Average per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Africa amount to just 0.5 tonnes annually - a fraction of the comparable figures for Europe (12 tonnes per capita) and the US (20 tonnes per capita).
AFRICA, IN OTHER words, is being dumped on yet again. After decades of colonialism, ruthless exploitation, wars and famines, it is now going to bear the brunt of climate change. And, being so poor, with nearly half of the population south of the Sahara subsisting on a dollar a day, it is ill-equipped to deal with the dire consequences.
The entire continent, with a land mass as large as Europe, North America, Australia and Japan combined, has only 1,150 World Weather Watch stations - one per 26,000sq km (10,038sq miles), or eight times lower than the WMO's recommended minimum level - and most of its historical records have yet to be digitised to feed computer models.
That's one reason why "capacity building" is so important. Another is that Africa has lost out heavily to Asia in getting access to funds under the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism.
"The money is available, but there's very little awareness of it," one Irish source said. "In some cases, they don't even know how to fill in the forms."
Prof Ogunlade Davidson, a Sierra Leone member of the UN's Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said this week: "The climate of Africa is changing whether we like it or not. And, as for its likely impacts, our capacity is weak. We don't have the hospitals to treat diseases or the health centres to test for malaria."
At the same symposium, organised by the Heinrich Böll Foundation and the Kenyan Green Belt Movement, Nobel peace laureate Wangari Maathai said: "We know the science. We know the problems. The problem that we have is what to do. What will make the difference is not the negotiations, but what we do when we go home."
Known in Kenya as the "Tree Lady" because she has spent most of her life urging Africans to plant trees, Prof Maathai said she is often asked about the fact that President Bush spurned Kyoto. "I always say I'm sure he had his reasons. But I know a lot of governments who signed the Kyoto Protocol and did nothing when they went home."
She recalled that astronauts on the most recent Challenger space mission had seen a blanket of dust over Africa and rivers brown with silt as a result of deforestation. Appealing to the predominantly African audience to take action, she said: "We need to bring the issue home. We should not wait until Mombasa is under water."
Colourfully dressed in traditional African garb, Prof Maathai said it was "deeply unfair and unjust" that the 11 countries which recently pledged to protect the Congo Basin rainforest were receiving no assistance. "The fact that it is not being clear-felled should be recognised, because it is such a huge carbon sink [ to offset CO2 emissions]."
Asked about the reliance of many Africans on charcoal for cooking, she said this would continue until alternative sources of energy were provided. In Botswana, consumption of charcoal had been reduced by half through LPG substitution. "There's a lot of emphasis in Kenya on rural electrification, but the biggest budget is defence."
Meanwhile, biotechnology companies such as Monsanto are promoting genetically modified crops as "the next big solution to climate change". Critics charge that they are pressing African countries to turn over large areas of land to grow crops for the production of biofuels - for export to Europe and North America.
IN NAIROBI, THE jacaranda trees all over the city are shedding their violet blossoms onto the reddish earth, which is often mucky from heavy rain the previous night. Deep gulleys along the roadside are turned into torrents by tropical downpours. Because, when it rains here, it really rains hard. And we are in the midst of the rainy season.
A study published this week by UNEP and the World Agroforestry Centre (WAC) estimated that Nairobi could supply enough water for up to 10 million people - nearly three times its current population - if all of this rain falling freely from the clouds was "harvested". Other African cities could also "dramatically boost supplies" in this way.
"In the popular mind," as WAC director general Dennis Garrity said, "Africa is seen as a dry continent. But overall, it actually has more water resources per capita than Europe. However, much of Africa's rain comes in bursts and is rapidly swept away. The time has come to realise the great potential of collecting it."
However, this will require major capital investment, as will numerous other measures to help Africa adapt to climate change. Appealing to the world's rich countries, UNFCC executive secretary Yvo de Boer said: "Activating the adaptation agenda is critical. It is time to move from establishing the principles to real action on the ground."
Between €7 billion and €30 billion is needed annually to fund adaptation measures as well as support for Africa to invest in alternative energy, such as solar power. So far, the developed countries have given only €34 million - a tenth of the amount they pledged - even as they continue subsidising fossil fuels to the tune of €57 billion a year.