ECB expected to keep rates on hold

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged today, but markets are hoping for a sign on whether…

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged today, but markets are hoping for a sign on whether the central bank will squeeze in one more hike before it heads into the summer break.

Manufacturing and services activity grew at their strongest in six years in June, adding to evidence that the euro zone economy could be enjoying its best year since 2000.

At the same time, price pressures from high energy costs, excess liquidity and more workers finding jobs confirm the central banks' view that interest rates barely higher than inflation are not appropriate and must rise further.

Today's governing council meeting is the last scheduled face-to-face rate discussion before a summer pause. The decision is due at 12.45pm Irish time, followed by a news conference at 1.30pm.

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The following rate meeting on August 3rd is planned as a teleconference and has never been the occasion for a rate change nor a news conference.

The 18-member Governing Council does not meet again in person until August 31st, which analysts see as the most likely time to next increase rates.

But some policymakers have stressed in recent weeks that anything is possible and this, coupled with the run of strong data, has prompted money markets to price in about a 50 per cent chance of an August 3rd increase.