Few people can invent an entirely new profession, but James Morrell, who died on September 29th aged 77, set one up - business forecasting - and established the Henley Centre, which still epitomises it. He had his own company (James Morrell Associates), which he ran with his wife Margaret, providing forecasting advice to a range of subscribers. In the last year of his life, he retired from day-to-day forecasting, and joined the board of the Centre for Economics and Business Research Ltd.
James Morrell had an unusual mix of qualities. He was highly intelligent, although sometimes his modest manner led people to underestimate him. Those who knew better, like his former tutor, Sir Donald MacDougall, who had been Churchill's economic adviser and went on to become the British government's chief economic adviser under Harold Wilson and Ted Heath, never did.
He also had a very thorough knowledge of both the theory and practicalities of economics, although he resisted being described as an economist. He said that people get scared of economic forecasts, which they think of as something academic and esoteric.
Yet despite his unwillingness to describe himself as an economist, James Morrell certainly knew his economics. Only three weeks ago his letter in the Financial Times pointed out the implications of inflation running much lower than most had expected.
To do something that no one else has done before requires imagination. He had enough to realise that disciplines previously the domain of academics and government officials could be put to practical business use. His key insight was to see how the traditionally academic approaches of economics and sociology could help businessmen understand the prospects for their companies. He was the first in the UK to show how they could be used for "decision-support" - providing key information to improve business decision-making.
James Morrell was born in Twickenham and educated at Christ's Hospital school. After flying as a night-fighter pilot in Beaufighters and Mosquitoes during the second World War, he went to Oxford to study philosophy, politics and economics, first at Ruskin College and then at Wadham. He felt that before he could pursue his career in business forecasting he needed to understand about the real world, and worked underground, in a coal mine and as a bank clerk before joining the Ford Motor Group as an economist.
A one-time member of the Fabian Society, he stood for parliament in 1964 as a Labour candidate. But he was never one to argue that humanitarian ideals could substitute for economic competence, and joined the newly formed Social Democratic Party in the 1980s.
He was essentially an economic free thinker, never one to be pigeon-holed as a Keynesian, monetarist, or indeed anything else. He was generous to a fault, especially with the young and with people he saw as trying hard to make their way in the world. Sometimes he was taken advantage of, but he preferred to risk that to adopting a sceptical and suspicious attitude.
James Morrell is survived by his wife and two daughters and a son from his first marriage.
James Morrell: born 1923; died, September 2000