Irish economists have chopped their forecasts for 2007 house price growth for the second month in a row as the country's property market cools after a decade of jaw-dropping gains, a Reuters survey showed today.
It also showed a small downward revision in expectations for gross domestic product growth for both this year and 2008.
Irish house price growth this year is now seen averaging just 0.5 per cent, down from 3 per cent in last month's survey and the 5 per cent expected at the start of the year, according to the median forecast of eight Dublin-based economists.
House prices in Ireland, which have more than quadrupled since the country's economy began to boom in the late 1990s, fell for the first time in over five years in March and have continued to drop, pushing annual growth to just 2.6 per cent in May from an average of nearly 12 per cent in 2006.
However, while some economists predict that prices may even fall this year, most believe a correction was necessary and that a soft landing for the market is the most likely outcome.
The median forecast for house prices next year - the first time Reuters has polled it - was for growth of 1.5 per cent. Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First, is projecting a fall of 2 per cent this year but a rise of 2 per cent in 2008.
"The reasons for the modest recovery next year include further mortgage interest relief in the next budget, more certainty in relation to interest rates and a serious decline in supply," he said.
Housing completions were expected to slow to 70,000 next year from 80,000 this year and 93,000 in 2006, he said. "I still believe there is fundamental demand out there."
However, he added the slowdown in housing completions was likely to impact on economic growth.
Rossa White at Davy Stockbrokers predicted thousands of job losses as a result, pushing Ireland's unemployment rate up to 5.1 per cent by the end of this year and 6.0 percent at the end of 2008 versus about 4.5 per cent at present.
He said up to 35,000 of 185,000 jobs in the house building sector could be lost by the end of next year although other areas of the economy should continue to create employment.
"We have left our macro forecast unchanged for 2008," he said. "We still expect 3 per cent gross national product (GNP) growth as faster exports growth and robust non-residential building picks up some of the slack from housebuilding."
Economists revised their overall growth estimates marginally downwards, with the median 2007 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast easing to 4.9 per cent from 5 per cent in last month's poll, and GNP down to 4.8 from 5 per cent.
Estimates for next year's GDP growth also eased - to 3.8 per cent from 4 per cent, while GNP was unchanged at 3.9 per cent.
Ireland's stubbornly high inflation rate remained a concern for economists and, while the median forecast for average consumer price inflation (CPI) this year eased slightly to 4.8 per cent from 4.9 per cent previously, most analysts believe that there would be little relief until 2008.
"The recent surge in oil prices and expected further policy tightening from the European Central Bank will keep Irish inflation around the 5 per cent level over the remainder of the year," said Oliver Mangan, chief bond economist at AIB.
"Indeed, it could spike up to close on 5.5 per cent for a month. However, inflation should fall back sharply in 2008."
The median forecast for next year was unchanged from June's survey at 3 per cent.