GOVERNMENT hopes of making massive savings in education through rapidly falling pupil numbers are likely to be dashed by the teacher unions, who say the will vehemently oppose any significant cut in teacher numbers.
With enrolments set to fall by up to 250,000 over the coming years, the Commission on School Accommodation Needs (COSAN) established last year by Niamh Bhreathnach is due to start drawing up the ground rules shortly for a massive rationalisation of schools.
However, the unions say any teachers who become surplus as a result of falling student numbers must be used to reduce the pupil teacher ratio, or to teach new subjects.
According to the INTO, more, not fewer, teachers will be needed. At second level, the ASTI concedes that a small decrease in the number of teachers may result, but says most staff should simply be redeployed.
The tough stance adopted by the unions diminishes the chances of a "demographic dividend" arising from the unparalleled slump in pupil numbers that is underway.
Primary school numbers are already falling by 11,000 a year, and only the introduction of the six year cycle has staved off a corresponding drop at second level until after 1997.
A 25 per cent drop in the birth rate has raised hopes in political circles and in the Department of Finance that significant savings could be made in the £2 billion education budget by the turn of the century. Almost 90 per cent of education costs goes on staff salaries. The money saved could then be redirected to other sectors of society, such as health, the unemployed or the growing number of elderly.
However, the INTO claims that even if all the surplus teachers are kept in the system, Ireland would still have the largest class sizes in Europe.
"If we use the fall for the sole purpose of reducing class size, we still won't get the job done. What about special education needs, remedial teaching, the Minister's own disadvantaged scheme?" says Senator Joe O'Toole, the INTO general secretary.
O'Toole, who doesn't accept the Department of Education's more pessimistic projections for the fall in numbers, says an extra 1,000 teachers would be needed if the Minister's "Breaking the Cycle" scheme for the disadvantaged were extended to all designated disadvantaged schools. Yet more would be required if the same were to happen in rural disadvantaged schools.
ASTI president John Mulcahy says there is a lack of forward planning around the issue. "There's no point in waiting to see what will happen. If we fall behind the population trends, there'll be a disaster."
But he says the issue is different at second level. "All teachers in post primary schools are specialists. It won't be a simple matter to redeploy them when the numbers drop."
Who will teach the new subjects in European languages or technology, or the new Leaving Cert programmes, he asks? And how can fresh blood be brought into the profession when retiring teachers are "not replaced?
"It defies logic that there isn't a planned early retirement scheme for teachers. In a few years, the State will want to get rid of extra staff. It should also be thinking now about retraining teachers for the subjects which will be in demand in the future."
There has never been a "right" size for schools. Small is beautiful, true, but small schools have great difficulty offering a broad curriculum. Obviously, this is more true at second level. However, some say they prefer the limited choice offered by several, small schools to "no choice" provided by a single school, be it secondary, vocational, co educational, denominational, etc.
The proposal in Seamus Brennan's 1991 Green Paper to close schools with fewer than four teachers provoked outrage. Since then, one and two teacher schools have become the holy cows of Irish education, though no one has ever researched the quality of education they provide.
According to Joe O'Toole, "if a school is on Inishturk, or any other island or remote community, the best size is any size".
The commission is likely to back this thinking, by distinguishing between "stand alone" schools - for example, on the islands - and those in "multi centre" areas, such as provincial towns. The cost of discriminating in favour of the "stand alone" units will be balanced by amalgamating the "multi centre" schools.
In some areas, this will make sense, but in others the resultant school would be two large. For example, amalgamating the three second level schools in Enniscorthy, Co Wexford, would produce a unit with up to 1,400 students, which is generally considered too large. Two smaller schools might provide more choice and a better education.
Mulcahy points out that amalgamating schools on a greenfield site involve massive capital costs. Such building programmes are notorious prone to being cut back when it suits the Government.
