Over the last 10 years there has been a substantial increase in the cross-border flows of students. In 1985, there were 489 Northern Irish full-time undergraduates studying in universities in this State (Department of Education, Northern Ireland figures). By 1995 this had risen to 1,693 students. In 1985, there were 71 full-time undergraduates from this State studying in Queen's University, Belfast, and 178 in the University of Ulster. By 1995 this had risen to 687 and 2,088 respectively. The abolition of fees in 1996 in this State is unlikely to have made any difference to flows from North to South in that the previously charged fees were paid by the education and library boards in Northern Ireland.

From 1998, however, fees will be levied for new entrants to British and Northern Irish universities. Whereas up to 1996 the economically rational student from this State would have enrolled in a British or Northern Irish university in order to avoid fees charged here, from 1998 this same economically rational student would remain at home in order to obtain a free (apart from the ever-rising registration fee) higher education.

Likewise, from 1998 the economically rational Northern Ireland student would head south in order to avoid the fees to be levied for study in British universities.

All is not, of course, based on what is economically rational. In both jurisdictions there is extreme pressure on the higher education places available, especially in certain subject areas, notably business, law, accountancy and computer science.

In the Centre for Research on Higher Education we calculated that, in Northern Ireland, we would need an extra 12,000 places to match the level of provision in Scotland and 5,700 to match Welsh provision. This serious under-supply of places forces many students to leave Northern Ireland in order to obtain a place. Much the same pressure applies in this State.

The effect of the proposed increases in the personal cost of a higher education on student migration is not altogether easy to predict. At present, full maintenance support in Britain is set at £3,355, made-up of a 50 per cent means-tested grant and 50 per cent loan. Under the British government's proposals, this will be replaced by a 100 per cent means-tested loan.

In addition, where residual parental income is £34,000 or higher, a £1,000 fee will be charged. Where it is less than £16,000 the fee will be remitted. The profile of Northern Irish students compared to other British students suggests they are drawn from substantially poorer backgrounds. Undoubtedly, many more Northern Irish students in the future will want to remain at home to study in order to reduce costs.

Protestant students, disproportionally, head for Scotland. If - and it is, as yet, by no means clear - students in Scottish universities will be fee-charged for the four-year course on offer there, this may affect the choice of study destinations. A matter of serious concern is the degree to which these proposals will discourage students from poorer backgrounds entering higher education at all.

The demography of Northern Ireland suggests a continuing supply of 18-year olds well into the next century, hence there is unlikely to be a lessening in the competition for places resulting from falling numbers of potential entrants.

In this State, the demography suggests the age cohort will peak in 1998 and be followed by a significant decline in the number of 18-year olds, hence a potentially less competitive market in higher education places than at present.

However, with the introduction of fees in the British system, it is likely that many more students from this State will seek places at home. The fine detail of the British government's proposals have not yet been finalised.

At present, however, it is the (British) Department for Education and Employment's intention to means-test EU students for fees. Next year, it will be for the education and library boards in Northern Ireland and the local education authorities in England to access parental income in punts, marks, lira, pesetas and the like in order to determine the appropriate fee.

Therefore, the newly formed Student Support Agency will have the task of determining whether or not the Italian farmer has duly reported his/ her income accurately! EU students will not be eligible for means-tested maintenance loans.

The future, both north and south, would appear to be of increasing competition for higher education places. The Dearing Report recommended creating up to 5,000 new places in Northern Ireland to address the shortfall in places. Four options are canvassed to cater for this proposed expansion:

developing the Springvale campus in West Belfast

expanding the number of places available in Queen's within its existing estate

using a summer semester to expand provision in certain courses

extending sub-degree provisions in the Further Education Colleges and the articulation of these programmes with degree-level study in the universities

A system of higher education, already pared to the bone, cannot expand to create the opportunities the Dearing Report suggests is required. The cost of a higher education is likely to increasingly influence the opportunities the Dearing Report suggest is required.

The cost of a higher education is likely to increasingly influence the choices made by students. The best guess that can be made is that close-to-home study will become the only option for many students if they opt for a higher education at all.

Professor Robert Cormack is pro-vice-chancellor and co-director of the Centre for Research on Higher Education at Queen's University, Belfast.