The race is now officially on for the role of main opposition party, with Fine Gael slipping marginallyThe findings will make grim reading for the Government, writes TNS mrbi managing director Ian McShane
Field work for today's poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week within a climate of economic gloom, turmoil within the healthcare sector, the suspension of the Northern Assembly elections, and in the immediate aftermath of the Labour Party's annual convention.
The findings will make grim reading for the Government, as it sees its satisfaction rating drop a further three points since February, to a position whereby two- thirds of the electorate are now dissatisfied with its performance, rising to three-quarters of those living within the key Dublin region. The slide in Fianna Fáil's support now appears to have been arrested at what is nevertheless a perilously low 32 per cent, and the party is in danger of being overtaken in Dublin by Labour.
Meanwhile, Bertie Ahern's personal rating has declined in all four polls conducted since last May's pre-election survey, and now sits at a new low of 41 per cent behind Pat Rabbitte, Gerry Adams and Mary Harney. Still, the Fianna Fáil grassroots supporters' faith in their leader remains unshakeable at 79 per cent, just weeks after Mr Ahern publicly indicated his intention to lead the party into the next general election and beyond.
There is also evidence to suggest that not all of those who are unhappy with the Government's performance are prepared to lay the blame squarely at Mr Ahern's feet. Thus, one in three of those who are satisfied with Mr Ahern's performance as Taoiseach tell us that they are at the same time unhappy with the Government's behaviour - signs that some of his Cabinet colleagues must shoulder at least part of the blame for the Government's current poor standing.
In order to glean some insight into the key drivers of voter satisfaction or dissatisfaction, survey respondents were asked during the interview to identify those issues which are likely to influence the way they would vote in the event of a general election.
In response, a sizeable majority of voters, 61 per cent in total, mentioned any one of a number of economic factors, such as the economy in general, jobs/unemployment and price inflation. Of equal significance, however, is the fact that the main concern, cited by two-thirds of the electorate, is that of health and hospitals. No doubt the prevalence of health as such a key issue will have been strengthened by the recent series of announcements of hospital bed closures, uncertainty as to Ireland's state of preparation in the event of a serious SARS outbreak, and the ongoing public health doctors' strike.
Given the quite insignificant numbers of people who mentioned Ireland's neutrality (2 per cent) and even Northern Ireland (4 per cent) as areas of concern, one of the main lessons from this poll is that the next general election will, as always, be fought and won on the issues which affect people's day-to-day lives, regardless of international and global developments.
Other factors which the broad establishment will need to address are levels of funding for education, crime control, the cost of housing and the cost of car insurance, the latter being of most concern to younger, traditionally disaffected voters. The main political parties should also take note that supporters of the Independents are more concerned than the average voter about health and education, these being the type of issues which have tended in the past to produce successful "single-issue" candidates.
As this poll was conducted close to the anniversary of last year's general election, it was decided to question further respondents as to the degree to which they felt the Government has so far delivered upon what it promised during that election campaign (see Table D).
In interpreting the responses to this question, it could be argued that when faced with such a blunt question, a majority of voters will never be of the opinion that a government has fully delivered upon what it promised during a general election campaign. It is hard to see, for example, how the Government could be accused of not honouring its commitments in relation to Northern Ireland, yet 51 per cent of those surveyed tell us they believe it has not done so. The real value of such a question therefore lies in the relativity of response between the different areas of governance respondents were asked about during the interview. As such, response patterns to this question confirm that the electorate is deeply unhappy with the manner in which the broad economy is being handled by this Government, and is particularly worried about the state of the health services.
The race is now officially on for the role of main opposition party, with Fine Gael slipping marginally, Enda Kenny's personal rating still in decline from an already low base and both Pat Rabbitte and the Labour Party receiving a healthy bounce in fortunes in the immediate wake of their party convention. Indeed, the last time Fine Gael and Labour's core vote was on a par was immediately prior to the November 1992 general election, which resulted in Labour winning a record number of Dáil seats, a parity which prevailed over the two-year period following the election.
While it would be fair to suggest that Labour's ratings are artificially high due to the timing of the poll, there are some positive underlying factors which the party will now try to build upon for the future. Further analysis shows, for example, that Labour's lift in popularity stems almost exclusively from within the Dublin and broader Leinster regions, those areas where the make-up of governments is so often decided. It is also a fact that support for the party peaks amongst the 35-years+ population, i.e. those most likely to actually turn out and vote during an election.
In summary, while the electorate is clearly unhappy with the current management of the nation's affairs, it would be unwise to draw any long-term conclusions from today's poll findings. The next general election is three to four years away, by which time the economy may well have begun to improve, while the personal financial standing of hundreds of thousands of electors will be greatly improved as they cash in their Special Savings Incentive Accounts. That is not to say, however, that the Government parties will not be punished by the voters in the short term, with next year's local and European elections affording them the ideal opportunity to do so.
This survey in the Republic of Ireland was conducted exclusively on behalf of The Irish Times by TNS mrbi, among a national quota sample of 1,000 representative of the 2.82 million electors aged 18 upwards, covering 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the Republic of Ireland. Personal in-home interviewing took place on 12th and 13th May 2003, and the accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 3 per cent.
In all respects, the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by The Marketing Society of Ireland, and by ESOMAR (European Society).
Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to: The Irish Times and TNS mrbi.
Ian McShane
Managing Director
TNS mrbi