East Belfast Assembly member Sir Reg Empey remains favourite to succeed David Trimble as the new Ulster Unionist Party leader as Ulster Unionist Council delegates prepare to convene in Belfast tonight for the leadership election.
His fellow Assembly members and two opponents for the post, Alan McFarland and David McNarry, however, contend that a form of Ulster Unionist grassroots revolt will result in a major surprise when the votes are counted tonight.
The three candidates in recent days were sending out their last batches of personal election literature to the 769 members of the Ulster Unionist Council seeking support. Yesterday too the candidates and their supporters were also busily canvassing council members by telephone and personal visits.
The council delegates gather at 7.30pm at the Ramada Hotel in south Belfast, with the result expected sometime around 10.30pm. The first candidate to receive 50 per cent plus one of the vote will be the new leader, according to a party spokesman.
If none of the candidates reaches that figure in the first count, the Assembly member with the lowest number of votes will be eliminated and it will be a straight contest between the remaining two in the second count, he added.
Some 120 fewer delegates are entitled to vote tonight. This is because the Orange Order, which traditionally was allowed a special representation on the council, has disaffiliated from the council.
Each candidate realises the huge challenges ahead should he win. The UUP is celebrating its centenary at the worst political period in its history.
This May in the UK general and local elections the Rev Ian Paisley's DUP eclipsed the UUP as the main representative of unionism. Now the UUP has only one seat in the House of Commons - that of North Down MP Lady (Sylvia) Hermon - while the DUP has nine MPs.
Each of the candidates was continuing to talk up his chances yesterday although Sir Reg Empey, who has gathered more than half of the party's 24-member Assembly team behind his candidacy, is viewed as the front runner. The unionist-supporting News Letter newspaper provided each of the candidates yesterday with a platform to argue why he should become the 13th leader of the UUP tonight.
On whether a power-sharing deal remains possible, Sir Reg said the "voluntary winding up of the IRA must be clear for all to see, not some shambolic verification process". He said under his leadership, the UUP would "put behind us old and bitter internal battles".
North Down MLA Alan McFarland said he believed he could "kick-start and see through an internal revolution which will transform the party into an effective and successful election and political machine".
Strangford MLA David McNarry said the UUP could win back the confidence of the unionist electorate by "reconnecting with the people".