Consumers face ever higher oil prices in coming decades as investment in new supply is too slow to meet growing demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.
A barrel of crude may cost a nominal $57.79 in 2010, or $51.50 in real terms, up from a respective $40 and $35 expected last year, the IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook.
The nominal price may hit $97.30 in 2030, up from $65 expected last year. It could even reach $130.30 if investment falls short.
"We have revised upwards our assumptions for oil prices in this outlook," said the adviser to 26 industrialised countries. "This revision reflects the continuing recent tightness of crude oil and refined products markets."
Oil in New York hit a record $78.40 in 2006, leaving consumer governments worried about their economies. Concern is also mounting over risks to energy supplies and climate change from burning fossil fuels.
The IEA's 596-page study urges world leaders to enact policies that will leave the world consuming 10 per cent less fuel in 2030 than if demand were unchecked.
To meet the world's thirst for oil, $4.3 trillion needs to be invested in oilfields and refineries by 2030 and it is far from certain all the investment will occur, the IEA said.
Resource nationalism - the trend for countries such as Venezuela and Russia to seek more cash and control from companies that work their oil and gas fields - is among the factors that may restrain investment.