Epidemic is unlikely to blow Blair off course

For a party said to be so preoccupied with image and presentation, the farmers' message might have seemed a chilling portent …

For a party said to be so preoccupied with image and presentation, the farmers' message might have seemed a chilling portent of things to come.

"The silence of the lambs for Blair's election?" demanded the placard outside the Carlisle venue where the government's chief veterinary officer, Mr Jim Scudamore, explained to sceptical farmers why the planned "safety first" slaughter of some 300,000 healthy sheep should go ahead.

Inside the livestock market they told him of life with the stench of dead carcasses and pressed for the deployment of troops to accelerate the slaughter of already infected stock and their removal from the killing fields.

Before their encounter Mr Scudamore and the farmers had doubtless heard the story of Bill Parkhouse, aged 79, and his fearful watch as the foot-and-mouth epidemic moved evercloser to his Devon smallholding. Having already lost his wife and his health, a depressed Mr Parkhouse feared his 30-acre farm was next to go and, having cancelled Sunday lunch with his sister, he drank a measure of the disinfectant he had been using to try and protect his stock.

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The arrival of the air ambulance need not necessarily have signalled anything dramatic to neighbours trapped on their own farms, just another incident in a countryside ravaged by disease, its green and pleasant image now reduced to the sound of gunshot and the billowing smoke from burning pyres.

However, reports of this incident appeared to coincide with a changing mood about the government's handling of the crisis, a certain restlessness about earlier optimistic forecasts, and continuing conflicting messages from ministers about whether or not people should visit the countryside.

The Liberal Democrat leader, Mr Charles Kennedy, would later say it was wholly inappropriate for Westminster politicians to be talking about elections - in effect, about their livelihoods - while thousands across rural Britain were battling to save theirs.

In truth the election issue had already become a major talking point, as the earlier depiction of "a relatively self-contained disease" had given way to the realisation that Britain might well be facing something worse than 1967. Ministers themselves talked up the crisis, with the Agriculture Minister, Nick Brown, repeatedly telling people, politicians included, to stay away from the countryside.

However, it was William Hague who divined the shifting mood and who surprised some on Tuesday by effectively ending Westminster's bipartisan approach to the crisis, telling Tony Blair he might have to abandon his May election plans.

The Conservative leader was inevitably accused of making political capital out of the farmers' misfortunes, and knowingly ran the risk that he would be accused of running scared. Yet Mr Hague had been making some of the running on this issue, which is hardly surprising given that Tories represent about 132 of the country's 150 "farming" constituencies.

He could claim vindication certainly, as Mr Brown reluctantly followed his advice and mobilised an initially small number of troops, and as Downing Street announced plans to reduce the time vets have to be quarantined between farm visits. He would have been cheered by yesterday's ICM poll confirming a hardening of opinion against a May election, with 52 per cent saying it should be postponed and just 40 per cent saying it should go ahead.

The changed mood also appears to carry the threat that Labour could pay some price for Mr Blair's determination to proceed - with the party's lead down from 15 to nine points. Mr Blair's strategists, however, will have noted that even that figure would return him to power with a majority of 145. They will have noted too that opinion is split on party lines, with a majority of Labour voters urging the Prime Minister to go ahead.

Mr Blair and his ministers have time yet to convince the country there would be no point in a "gesture" delay until June when the crisis may now be expected to run for months. They have powerful media backers for their view that a country which went to the polls even in wartime should not surrender the Prime Minister's prerogative to the chief vet.

They have the alternative compelling imagery of Private Eye's current cover proclaiming a "new cull shock" with a smiling Mr Blair telling Mr Hague: " We're going to slaughter you next." And, of course, they have the imperative if at all possible to hold the council and general elections on the same day - since a predictably poor performance in the former would hardly provide the ideal launch pad for the latter.

Mr Blair will not be easily blown off course.