Establishment fears Green challenge to Amsterdam Treaty

It was a year in which Ireland had three Ministers for Foreign Affairs, yet the change from Dick Spring to Ray Burke to David…

It was a year in which Ireland had three Ministers for Foreign Affairs, yet the change from Dick Spring to Ray Burke to David Andrews brought little in the way of substantial shifts in foreign policy. Ireland claimed a share in the success of agreeing EU treaty reform at Amsterdam in June, having chaired the Union's Inter-Governmental Conference for much of the debate on treaty changes, and drafted much of the final text.

Sharp differences between EU member-states on institutional changes led to a fudge on some of these issues. Hard decisions on reducing the size of the European Commission were postponed, and while this suited Ireland, which retains its right to nominate a member of the Commission, the issue will have to be revisited in the future. Other changes, such as increasing the relative voting strengths of the larger EU states - which would disadvantage Ireland - will also have to be considered in the future. In the short term, the retention of the status quo suited Ireland.

The first part of 1998 will be dominated by debate over Ireland's relationship with the European Union. The referendum on the Amsterdam treaty is expected to take place in March.

A rejection of the proposed changes would cause incalculable damage to the aspiration - overwhelmingly supported within the political establishment - that Ireland's relationship with the EU should continue to become closer and deeper. However, the Government cannot spend public money on a partisan "yes" campaign - as it did in the 1992 Maastricht referendum - because of the McKenna judgment declaring that it must be even-handed in its support for the different sides in referendum campaigns.

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The Government seems likely to confine itself to funding the publication of non-partisan information explaining what the Amsterdam agreement says, rather than funding campaigns for and against the proposal. In these circumstances, supporters of the treaty fear that a well-organised campaign including the neutrality lobby, the Green Party and other interest groups could threaten the passage of the referendum.

The lobby in favour, however, will be broad and powerful. The main political parties will be joined by farmers' organisations, the various business lobbies, much of the trade union movement and other groups in urging a "yes" vote.

The treaty itself is complex, and as Mr Andrews told the Dail frankly on December 11th, "almost unreadable as a stand-alone text". A White Paper is to be published within a fortnight. This will give a detailed account of what is in the Treaty. It will be "comprehensive and non-judgmental, eschewing advocacy in favour of explanation", according to one source.

Differences on Europe were virtually undetectable between 1997's three ministers for foreign affairs, Mr Spring, Mr Burke and Mr Andrews. But one area where there were clear shifts in nuance was that of involvement in international security bodies. Mr Spring had said he personally favoured Ireland's joining the NATO-sponsored Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme, an initiative through which NATO and non-NATO military forces engage in joint training and exercises.

The former Labour leader argued that this would be useful training for peacekeeping and humanitarian operations and did not involve joining a military alliance. He had initiated discussions with NATO on what role Ireland could have in the PfP structure.

In opposition, Mr Burke and Fianna Fail were strong opponents of such involvement. Mr Burke continued to argue when in Government that he opposed involvement in any NATO-sponsored body, and that such involvement could be the "thin end of the wedge" in compromising Irish neutrality.

Mr Andrews's only comment on the issue as Minister so far has hinted at a slightly more flexible attitude. While he was "not convinced" that involvement in PfP was "necessary", he told the Dail last month, he would welcome a debate on the issue.

At the beginning of the year the Department of Foreign Affairs ran the largest single international campaign it has organised in its history: the successful three-month diplomatic effort to secure the appointment of Mary Robinson as United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

In every state to which Ireland is accredited diplomatically, an Irish representative made a demarche - a formal diplomatic approach - to the government seeking support for her. The Irish diplomatic missions to the UN in Geneva and New York carried out intensive informal lobbying.

The same diplomatic skills will need to be deployed next year if Ireland is to succeed in its ambition to be elected to the UN Security Council in 1999. If successful, Ireland would serve on the Council for two years from 2000 to 2002. Mr Andrews is understood to have lobbied the Algerian government on this matter during his visit there earlier this month.

That visit reflected the new minister's willingness to take independent diplomatic initiatives despite the demands of the Northern talks. Mr Andrews said afterwards that he hoped a dialogue could develop between Algeria and countries such as Ireland. Earlier this month he reported to the Luxembourg summit on his visit, but it is not clear yet whether his contacts can be developed into a more formal initiative to encourage a solution to the crisis there.

Ireland was one of the core countries that pressed successfully to secure the convention on the prohibition of the use, stockpiling, production and transfer of antipersonnel landmines. This month it became one of the first countries to both sign and ratify the new convention, and in autumn the State will host an international meeting to discuss its implementation. 1998 will also see the 50th anniversary of the UN Declaration on Human Rights, and the Minister of State at the Department of Foreign Affairs, Liz O'Donnell, has said her department will organise a programme of events to mark the occasion.