For an indication of the state of consumer spending this Christmas look no further than Ms Marie O'Brien, a veteran street vendor whose "10 sheets of wrapping paper for €2" were shifting slowly on Dublin's Henry Street.
"We used to hand it out like confetti," she said. "People would buy two or three packs at once. But now they are only buying one."
A similar message comes from the big retailers with reports of more cautious spending patterns among shoppers, and "consolidation" rather than growth in sales.
The Small Firms Association (SFA) has predicted a 2.9 per cent increase in business this Christmas, and most retailers who spoke to The Irish Times yesterday broadly agreed with that forecast.
"We're about 2 per cent ahead," said Mr Denis O'Connell, manager of Liffey Valley Shopping Centre in west Dublin. While he was "reasonably happy" with the figure, it contrasts starkly with an 18 per cent growth in Christmas sales in 2002.
Also reporting a 2 per cent rise was the Blanchardstown Centre where some of the 156 retailers have already begun discounting. "Some of the bigger, more marketed brands like HMV and Next, have held their nerves. But quite a number of others have gone very early into sales," said centre manager Mr Aidan Grimes.
At the flagship Brown Thomas store on Dublin's Grafton Street, business was on a par with last year "and we are quite happy with that", said manager Mr Alan Reidy. "I think people are being a bit more careful. It's not that they are not spending. But they are thinking about what they are buying before they come in."
He noted that Christmas Day falling on a Thursday, rather than a Wednesday as in 2002, would give retailers a last minute boost. "We expect the next three days will be very, very busy, and the extra day will make a difference."
SFA director Mr Pat Delaney agreed tomorrow and Wednesday would be "massive" for retailers. He said about €18 million an hour would be spent in the retail sector on Christmas Eve, bringing to €3.5 billion the total spend on consumer goods this Christmas - an estimated €680-€700 for every citizen.
An increase in internet shopping has reportedly had some impact on high street outlets with about 63 per cent of Internet users saying they would do some holiday shopping from their PCs.
Fears of shoppers being scared from the city because of traffic congestion have not materialised, however, with Mr Reidy reporting a better traffic flow in Dublin than in previous years. "Talking to customers, it seems the only pinch point has been around St Stephen's Green."
Mr Tom Coffey, chief executive of the Dublin City Business Association, agrees, praising Operation Freeflow and Dublin Bus - which has laid on an extra 500 buses this Christmas - for helping to improve ease of access. As for the state of consumer spending, he said: "We are in transition from double-digit growth to single-digit growth. Good managers who understand this, and price accordingly, will do well. Those who don't, won't. Overall, if people achieve 2-3 per cent growth they should be very pleased."
Proof of contrasting Christmas fortunes could be found back at Henry Street yesterday evening where the queues for the cash registers at Roches Stores' new Zara fashion shop were 25 deep.
Meanwhile, outside the store, Ms O'Brien was still crying for customers. "It better pick up on Tuesday or Wednesday or there'll be no turkey or ham for me this Christmas," she said.
