The fate of the Minister for Transport, Mr Cullen, hangs in the balance this weekend after the State's ethics watchdog put off deciding whether it should start a full investigation into contracts secured by his political associate Ms Monica Leech.
The Standards in Public Office Commission moved last night to seek legal advice from a senior counsel in relation to Ms Leech's contracts with the Department of the Environment and the Office of Public Works. The commission is seeking to match the issues raised in the controversy with the specific provisions of the Ethics in Public Office Act, which governs its work.
It is unlikely to meet again until the week after next, meaning the uncertainty surrounding Mr Cullen's future will continue.
While former Revenue chairman Mr Dermot Quigley last week cleared the Minister of wrongdoing in relation to established procedures, his report said Mr Cullen left himself open to a "perception of impropriety" by proposing his supporter for the work.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, immediately moved to withdraw from ministers the power to directly hire public relations consultants from the private sector.
The commission spent four hours yesterday examining the Quigley report and files produced by the Department and the OPW, which were under Mr Cullen's direct political control when Ms Leech was hired to provide communications advice.
A brief statement was issued after the meeting, at which the commission, chaired by Mr Justice Matthew P. Smith, did not reach a decision in principle. "It was decided to seek further legal advice in the matter. On receipt of that advice, the standards commission will meet again to continue its deliberations."
The fact that the commission did not decide against holding a full investigation led some political sources to speculate that it was preparing to initiate an investigation and wanted legal support for such a decision. The same sources said it was equally possible that the commission wanted legal backing to conclude its examination without embarking on a full investigation.
Any move to initiate such an investigation into Ms Leech's contracts would be damaging for Mr Cullen. While it would inevitably lead to Opposition pressure on him to stand down, he is likely to argue that he should await the outcome of such an inquiry. However, he is vulnerable because of the precedent set in 2001 when the then minister of state for agriculture, Mr Ned O'Keeffe, resigned at the outset of a full commission investigation into his declaration of interests in the Dáil.
