EU activity slowdown will not avert rate hike

Business activity growth slowed in the euro zone in September, but economists stuck to the view that overall economic expansion…

Business activity growth slowed in the euro zone in September, but economists stuck to the view that overall economic expansion would stay solid and the ECB would hike interest rates again at tomorrow's meeting.

The pace eased in the dominant services sector for the third successive month, a survey of company purchasing managers showed today.

A sister-survey of manufacturers, released on Monday, showed stable growth, albeit below the peak levels hit in both services and manufacturing in June, when confidence got an added boost from the soccer World Cup, hosted by Germany and won by Italy.

"Overall then, while the PMI survey supports other evidence suggesting euro-zone growth probably slowed a little bit in the third quarter, there is nothing in today's news to stop the ECB from raising rates to 3.25 per cent at tomorrow's meeting and probably again in December," Capital Economics said in a note.

READ MORE

The consultancy said that the purchasing manager indices and other recent information still pointed to GDP growth of around 0.7 per cent, quarter-on-quarter, in the coming quarters, which is roughly 2.8 per cent annualised.

The September PMI index of the services sector fell to 56.7 from an upwardly-revised 57.4 in August, though it remained well above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.

For manufacturing, the headline index stayed at 56.6. Those are levels consistent with healthy if slower growth as the third quarter of the year drew towards a close.

Gross domestic product in the 12-nation common currency area expanded by an annualised 3.6 per cent in the second quarter, the fastest in six years and outstripping the United States, Japan and Britain.

The European Commission raised its forecast in September to growth of 2.5 per cent for 2006, almost double the 1.3 per cent of 2005. The IMF also raised its forecast to 2.4 per cent for this year and predicted 2 percent in 2007.