EUROPEAN UNION leaders are pressing Taoiseach Brian Cowen to pledge next week to rerun the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty despite real fears it could prove "unwinnable".
At a private lunch for EU ambassadors in Brussels yesterday, the representatives of several member states expressed concern that the Government may be too weak to win a second vote. Some ambassadors also baulked at the substantial demands the Government is making of its EU partners in return for a promise to rerun the referendum.
"This is quite something you are asking for and we are asking in return for a perspective on when you will hold another referendum," said one diplomat, who was briefed on a presentation made by Ireland's EU Ambassador Bobby McDonagh on the Irish demands.
The presentation for the first time provided all 27 member states with the Government's "roadmap" for overcoming the difficulties caused by the rejection of the treaty.
In return for an undertaking to attempt ratification of the treaty again, Mr Cowen is seeking legal guarantees on Irish sovereignty over issues such as abortion, neutrality and taxation. He also wants EU states to retain the right to nominate a representative to every commission.
Most states want any roadmap agreed at next week's European Council to contain a deadline for ratification of the treaty. Mr Cowen is expected to say that the European Parliament elections in June will have to be held under rules of the Nice Treaty, rather than Lisbon. But there is uncertainty about whether he will agree a deadline that could restrict his room for manoeuvre.
Most of the political debate ahead of next week's EU summit is about the nature of the guarantees EU leaders are willing to give Mr Cowen on the issues. EU states are unwilling to attach any new legally-binding protocol to Lisbon that would force them to re-ratify the treaty. Dublin may overcome this problem by having legally-binding concessions attached to the Croatian accession treaty when that country joins in 2010/11. Some states are also unwilling to concede to the Government's demand that every EU state should retain the right to appoint a commissioner permanently. France, which holds the presidency of the EU, has suggested a temporary reprieve on the reduction in size of the commission until 2017 or 2019.
Both suggestions are unlikely to satisfy Mr Cowen, who briefed French president Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris and European Commission president José Manuel Barroso in Brussels on his proposed roadmap.
However, across Europe there are real concerns about whether any new referendum is winnable. "Some delegations expressed concerns about the weakness of Cowen's government and whether it could win a second referendum," said another EU diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Privately, most EU diplomats accept that the most likely date for a second referendum is October 2009. Swedish European affairs minister Cecilia Malmström told The Irish Times it was preparing to conduct the first half of its upcoming presidency of the EU, which runs from July to December 2009, under the Nice Treaty.
When asked if a deadline needed to be set by which time the Government should ratify Lisbon she replied: "I don't want to set a specific date but if the Government comes to a decision that no referendum is possible for one or two years, then we have to live under the Nice Treaty and concentrate on issues affecting people in Europe," she said.
Crowley clashes with Klaus: page 8; Cowen more hopeful after Paris talks; France tempers its referendum ambitions; Opt-out of security pact would exclude State from defence talks and missions: page 10