The European Commission has issued a "road map" for Eastern European and Mediterranean states, outlining exactly what they have to do if they want to join the EU by the end of 2002. But the strategy paper does not name a date for the end of negotiations and most officials in Brussels believe that it will be 2005 before the first new members are admitted.
The Commissioner responsible for Enlargement, Mr Gunther Verheugen, told the European Parliament yesterday that, after 10 years of difficult economic reforms, applicant states needed evidence that they were moving closer to their goal of EU membership.
"It is quite understandable that the people concerned want to see light at the end of the tunnel. It is not to be ruled out that the readiness to accept reforms and further efforts will decrease if those people no longer believe that the goal of EU membership will actually be reached," he said.
Even if the first wave of applicants complete their negotiations by the end of 2002, it is expected to take a further 18 months for EU member states to ratify the decision to admit them. Some EU governments are considering holding referendums before they agree to admit new members to the EU, a process that would cause a further delay.
Before an applicant country is admitted to the EU, it must show that it is a stable democracy that respects human rights and protects minorities. It must have a functioning market economy that can withstand the competitive pressure of Europe's single market. And it must be able to take on the obligations of EU membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.
Yesterday's strategy paper praises the progress made by the applicant states and concludes that Cyprus and Malta already fulfil the economic criteria, while Estonia, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia are close to meeting them. Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia have made substantial progress in reforming their economies but they will not be competitive for some time to come. Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey still fail to satisfy the economic criteria.
Turkey, which has applied to join but has not started negotiations, yesterday received details of the political changes and improvements to human rights it must make before it can progress towards membership. They include constitutional guarantees for freedom of opinion, assembly and religion, the abolition of the death penalty and the prevention of torture. The role of the army would have to be adapted to the rules of a democratic society, the state of emergency in south-east Turkey lifted and the cultural rights of ethnic minorities, such as the Kurds, guaranteed.
