EU spotlight shifts to Danish voters

There was never any sense in Brussels that Ireland would do anything but the "right" thing in approving the Amsterdam Treaty

There was never any sense in Brussels that Ireland would do anything but the "right" thing in approving the Amsterdam Treaty. But the swing of seven percentage points towards the No camp since the Maastricht referendum will certainly cause a few flutters in other more sceptical capitals. If repeated in this week's Danish referendum it would tip the balance into a No vote.

In other EU capitals, some will be mopping brows with the thought: "thank God we didn't put it to the people".

The strength of the No vote has certainly been taken on board by Fianna Fail, whose leader, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, went out of his way to distance the party from Euro-enthusiasts like Fine Gael.

"The result clearly shows that the Irish people want to maintain neutrality and sovereignty. There is no support for federalism and any further integration clearly has to be justified," he warned at his Saturday press conference.

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Indeed he may well see a strong No vote as strengthening his hand in his negotiations on the Agenda 2000 structural funding and CAP packages - Ireland cannot be taken for granted, ministers will tell Brussels.

The leader of Fine Gael, Mr Bruton, responded with a significantly different message, expressing disappointment and calling on the Government to develop a more visionary approach to selling the European ideal.

There was a need to campaign in a different way these days - "not to see Europe as a source of cash but a common endeavour."

" We need to start selling the ideal of Europe in the way that the founders of Europe did, " he said.

Instead of shying away from the neutrality issue "we need to emphasise that we have a contribution to make to Europe and that there are responsibilities and commitments that go with a closer Union." That did not mean ending neutrality but a full commitment to involvement in the Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy.

The referendum may thus result in the emergence of some clear blue water between the Government and opposition on Europe. It should certainly provide, as the Minister for Education and Fianna Fail campaign manager, Mr Martin, urges, an impetus for the continuing domestic clarification of EU issues. It is certainly clear that attempts by France and others to resuscitate an EU-Western European Union merger, or to commit the Union to collective defence, must be doomed for the next decade at least - a No majority on neutrality is still rock solid.

Europe's attention now turns to Denmark and the prospect of a far more nail-biting finish. The gap is closing. On Saturday, a poll by a leading Danish newspaper, Berlingske Tidende, showed 47 per cent in favour to 35 per cent against, with 18 per cent don't knows.

A two to one breakdown against the treaty among don't knows - as manifested in Ireland - would leave a gap of only six percentage points. However most pundits are currently forecasting a Yes .

One reason may be the experience of attempting to renegotiate the treaty after the Danes' first No vote on Maastricht in 1992. There is a growing feeling that the sort of concessions which last time secured a Yes at the second attempt in 1993 are simply not available.

Both the former leader of the opposition, Mr Uffe Elleman Jensen, and the Prime Minister, Mr Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, have spoken of the likelihood that Denmark might have to accept a form of relegation to second-class membership of the Union in the event of a No vote - access to EU markets but not decision-making.

If the Danes vote Yes this time, ratification should be straightforward from then on with all member-states pledged to complete their parliamentary ratification processes by late autumn and most by the summer.

Yet the truth is that even before the ink was dry on the treaty - indeed inscribed in the very ink of the treaty - talk had already begun of the next treaty - Amsterdam II.

A failure of political will at the last moment left Amsterdam, complex and lengthy as it may be, seriously deficient in the means to cope institutionally with the pending enlargement of the Union to the east

And so, just when you thought it was safe to forget about EU treaties . . .